Background to Catholic Vote

The Catholic vote, traditionally a mainstay of the Democratic party, has been fickle in recent elections. Gore held a slim 3-point margin over Bush among Catholics in 2000, according the NEP exit polls. Kerry lost the Catholic vote to Bush in 2004 by 5 points, 52% - 47%.

During the 2008 Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton was the clear vote choice over Obama in the exit polls. The tilt of leaners toward Obama may indicate that many Catholic voters may be taking a second look at Obama, but are not yet firm in their choice.

Candidates Underperforming Among Key Catholic Constituencies

The Catholic vote may be viewed in several ways – all Catholics, white Catholics and Hispanic Catholics, mass-going Catholics versus non-observant Catholics.

McCain faces a challenge with White Catholics, where he holds a slim 47% to 42% lead over Obama-- a constituency Bush carried by 13 percentage points in 2004, according to the NEP exit polls.

Obama faces his own challenges: he is currently trailing McCain among Hispanic Catholics by 4 percentage points, perhaps a reflection of the lingering scars from the Democratic Primary. Hillary Clinton captured much of the Hispanic vote in the primaries. Hispanic Catholics supported Kerry over Bush by 19 percentage points in 2004, according to NEP exit polls.

Contrasting Candidate Strengths

The three most important issues to Catholics (and all voters) in this year’s Presidential election are the nation’s economy (63% extremely important), terrorism (59%), and the situation in Iraq (57%). McCain tops Obama in two of these areas:

• Best protect the U.S. from terrorism: McCain over Obama, 53% - 31%
• Best handle the situation in Iraq: McCain over Obama, 47% - 42%

Obama’s strengths over McCain among Catholics hinge on his likeability and his edge on handling the economy, the number one issue right now.

• Most likeable: Obama tops McCain, 67% - 20%.
• Best understands concerns of people like myself: Obama beats McCain, 51% - 30%.
• Best able to handle the economy, Obama over McCain by a slim 42% - 36%.

“Values Issues”

Catholic voters’ opinions on “values issues” differ significantly depending on how often they attend religious service. Catholics are split on these issues.

• Abortion: Only 18% of Catholics overall would ban abortion under any circumstances. However, 37% of those who attend religious services at least once a week, say abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. By contrast, just 4% of those who attend services less regularly agree.

• Gay Marriage: Half of Catholics (50%) believe that gay couples should not be allowed to marry, while 43% say they should be allowed. Almost 7 in 10 (69%) Catholics who attend religious service at least once a week feel gay marriage should not be allowed. A majority (56%) of those who attend religious service less regularly feel same-sex marriages should be permitted.

• Stem Cell Research: Three in five Catholics (62%) favor stem cell research with discarded fetuses. Nearly half (49%) of those who attend church weekly oppose stem cell research; compared to three-quarters (74%) who attend church less often favor it.

Single Issue Constituency?

Only about 1 in 5 Catholic voters would not vote for a candidate solely on his position on abortion (16%) or gay marriage (18%). Views are more hardened on Iraq, where 24% would not vote for a candidate soley on his position on Iraq.

• One-in-five (20%) of weekly church-goers would not vote for a candidate who favored gay marriage.
• 22% of those who attend church weekly would not vote for a candidate who supported abortion rights.