February 5, 2008

The “Dream Ticket”?

General Election: Clinton-McCain Tied, Obama Leads

By Seth Brohinsky and Mark Schulman, Abt SRBI

Time/Abt SRBI Poll: Clinton, Obama: Why Not Both?

As the Democrats take a giant step forward today in choosing their presidential standard-bearer, much speculation has arisen about a possible Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton ticket. The latest Time poll finds that a majority of voters think Obama would strengthen a Clinton ticket. However, voters are divided on whether Clinton would strengthen Obama’s chances.

Majority Say Obama Would Strengthen Clinton’s Ticket

A majority of likely voters (55%) say Hillary Clinton’s chances in the general election would be helped by having Barack Obama as her Vice-Presidential running mate. About one-quarter (24%) believe it will have no effect and just one-in-ten (11%) say it will hurt her chances.

    • Almost three-quarters (73%) of Obama supporters say that
     Obama would help Clinton’s chances for election.
    • Additionally, almost six-in-ten (59%) likely voters with at least
     some college education feel Obama would help Clinton’s chances
     to be elected.

Voters Divided on Whether Clinton Would Boost Obama

Less than two-in-five (38%) likely voters believe Barack Obama’s chances in the general election would be helped by having Hillary Clinton as a Vice-Presidential running mate. A similar percentage of likely voters (31%) believe Obama’s chances would actually be hurt by having Clinton as a running mate, underscoring voter’s view of her as a polarizing figure. Additionally, one-in-five (21%) see Hillary Clinton as having no effect.

    • Among Obama supporters, almost six-in-ten (58%) feel Hillary Clinton will not help Obama’s chances
     for election.
    • Additionally, almost two-in-five (37%) likely voters with an income over $50,000 believe that Clinton
     will actually hurt Obama’s chances for election.

Bill Clinton: A Mixed Blessing

Bill Clinton has been a mixed blessing to his wife’s campaign, according to voters. About one-third (35%) of likely voters say Bill Clinton has helped; nearly the same percentage (34%) say he has hurt Hillary’s chances of getting the Democratic nomination. One-quarter (26%) believe he has not had much effect.

    • Among Independents, more (38%) believe Bill Clinton has hurt Hillary’s chances than
     helped (31%).
    • Among Black voters, who have supported Bill Clinton in the past, a near majority
     (45%) say he has helped Hillary, while only one-in-five (21%) believe he has hurt her chances.

Bill Clinton Sways Few Voters for Hillary

A large majority of voters (70%) say that Bill Clinton’s campaigning has had no influence on their vote. However, almost one-in-five (19%) say it has actually made them less likely to vote for Hillary. Less than one-in-ten (9%) likely voters’ say Bill Clinton’s campaigning has made them more likely to vote for Hillary.

    • Almost three-in-ten (28%) Obama supporters say Bill Clinton’s campaigning has made them less
     likely to vote for Hillary.

However, if Hillary Clinton is elected President, most (57%) voters believe Bill Clinton will be helpful to Hillary’s presidency. Still, one-in-five (20%) see Bill Clinton as being harmful to Hillary’s presidency and a similar percentage (18%) say he would not be much of a factor.

Bill as Co-President?

Some have speculated that if Hillary Clinton were elected President, it would be more of a co-presidency with her husband. Most (64%) voters believe Hillary would be fully in charge. However, 1 in 3 voters (31%) believe it would be more of a co-presidency.

    • Seven-in-ten (70%) women believe Hillary will be fully in charge.
    • Almost four-in-ten (37%) men believe it would be a co-Presidency.
    • Among Republicans 44% say it would be a co-Presidency and a similar percentage (49%) say Hillary
     would be fully in charge.
    • However, most Independents (65%) believe Hillary will be fully in charge.

General Election Match-ups: Obama Runs Stronger Against McCain

One of the most important factors for primary voters is the electability of the candidate that gets the party’s nomination. The matchup of Hillary Clinton (46%) and John McCain (46%) is a statistical dead heat. In a positive sign for Republicans, John McCain has a commanding lead over Clinton among Independent voters (49% vs. 39%).

    • Clinton holds the support of: a majority of: women (53%), young people 18 – 34 (60%),
     Black (87%), and Hispanic (62%) voters.
    • McCain holds an advantage among men (51%), 35 – 54 year olds (52%), White (53%),
     and Evangelical (52%) voters.

In a matchup between Barack Obama and John McCain, Obama has a seven percentage point lead (48% vs. 41%). Importantly, a near majority of Independent voters prefer Obama (48%) over McCain (36%).

    • Obama attracts the support of a majority of: women (52%), young people 18 – 34 (60%), low income
     under $35k (60%), moderate (53%), as well as Black (81%), and Hispanic (66%) voters.
    • McCain holds a majority of voters among just two groups, voters with high income greater than
     $100k (51%) and Evangelicals (50%).

Can Motion Pictures Impact Voters?

With documentary and politically motivated films such as “An Inconvenient Truth”, “Sicko”, “Blood Diamond”, among others becoming increasingly popular across America; the question is can these types of films influence their viewers? More than half of Americans (53%) say they are interested in movies or documentaries about political issues. However, very few Americans say these films have actually inspired them.

    • About three-in-ten (28%) say a movie or documentary film has changed their mind about an issue.
    • Less than one-in-five (16%) say it has caused them to donate money to a charity.
    • A similar percentage (14%) says a movie or documentary has inspired them to volunteer for a cause.
    • About one-in-ten say a movie or documentary has inspired them to vote differently (11%) or contact
     a politician (10%).

The film that inspired Americans the most is “An Inconvenient Truth” a documentary about global warming and narrated by former Vice-President Al Gore.

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone February 1- February 4, 2008 among a random sample of 1,002 registered voters throughout America. The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups, for example, the margin of error for Democratic voters and Republican voters is approximately +/- 4 percentage points. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 4 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

Abt SRBI Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below:

www.srbi.com

Related Links

• 4328-Final Report-2008-02-05--8.15am.pdf