August 05, 2008

Evangelicals Remain Loyal to Republican Party

By Seth Brohinsky and Mark Schulman, Abt SRBI

Republican John McCain holds a substantial 51-point lead over Barack Obama, 70% to 19%, with just 7% undecided among likely White Protestant Evangelical voters, according to the latest national Time Magazine Poll, conducted July 31 - August 4, 2008.

McCain's support is just slightly off Bush's 78% Evangelical support in 2004, but on par with Bush's 70% in 2000, according to exit polls.

With "leaners" excluded, McCain still leads by a large 49-point margin, 66% to 17% with 14% undecided.

Evangelicals Loyal, But Some Not Enthusiastic

Evangelicals, a mainstay of the Republican Party, continue to be a loyal voting block for Republicans. Evangelical voters, while overwhelmingly in favor of McCain, are not enthusiastic about his candidacy. The large number of unenthusiastic Evangelical supporters, McCain may have difficulty turning out this entire voter block because many are not enthusiastic about his candidacy:

• Nearly three in ten (27%) McCain supporters are not enthusiastic about his candidacy.
• Interestingly, while a much smaller group, a higher percentage of Evangelical Obama supporters are enthusiastic about his candidacy (82%) compared to McCain supporters (71%).

McCain Viewed as Stronger Candidate

The three most important issues to Evangelicals in this year's Presidential election are terrorism (45% "extremely" important), the nation's economy (45%), and gas prices at the pump (42%). McCain tops Obama in two of these areas:

• Best protect the U.S. from terrorism: McCain over Obama, 80% - 10%
• Best handle the nation's economy: McCain over Obama, 64% - 19%

Evangelicals view Obama as just another politician; 53% say he is the candidate who switches his positions for political reasons, compared to just 14% who say McCain. In a contradiction; Evangelicals also view Obama as the more likeable of the two candidates (48% to 36%).

"Values Issues"

Evangelical voters' opinions on "values issues" differ significantly depending on how often they attend religious service. Evangelicals are split on these issues.

• Abortion: Only 18% of Evangelicals overall would ban abortion under any circumstances. However, 23% of those who attend religious services at least once a week, say abortion should be illegal in all circumstances. By contrast, just 6% of those who attend services less regularly agree.

Which of these positions best represents your views about abortion
Base: White Protestant Evangelical Likely Voters
	Total Evangelical (%)	Total Non-Evangelical (%)	Attend Church More than Once per Week (%)	Attend Church Once a Month to a Few Times a Year (%)	Attend Church Seldom or Never (%)
A woman should be able to get an abortion if she wants one in the first three months of pregnancy, no matter what the reason.	19	51	12	35	39
Abortion should be legal only in certain circumstances, such as when a woman's health is endangered or when the pregnancy results from rape or incest	59	36	61	55	50
Abortion should be illegal in all circumstances even if the mother's life is in danger	18	9	23	8	2
Not Sure / Don't Know	3	5	3	2	10

• Gay Marriage: Evangelicals agree (81%) believe that gay couples should not be allowed to marry, just 14% say they should be allowed. Almost 9 in 10 (88%) Evangelicals who attend religious service at least once a week feel gay marriage should not be allowed. However 30% of those who attend religious service less regularly feel same-sex marriages should be permitted.

Should gay and lesbian couples be allowed to marry, giving them full legal rights of married couples, or not?
Base: White Protestant Evangelical Likely Voters
	Total Evangelical (%)	Total Non-Evangelical (Base: Non- White Protestant Evangelical likely voters) (%)	Attend Church More than Once per Week (%)	Attend Church Once a Month to a Few Times a Year (%)	Attend Church Seldom or Never (%)
Should be allowed	14	52	8	31	25
Should not	81	41	88	65	69
Not Sure / Don't Know	4	7	4	4	6

Single Issue Constituency?

Three in ten (30%) Evangelical voters would not vote for a candidate based solely on his position on abortion or Iraq (20%). Views are more hardened on gay marriage, where 38% would not vote for a candidate based solely on his position on gay marriage.

• Almost half (44%) of weekly church-goers would not vote for a candidate who favored gay marriage.
• 35% of those who attend church weekly would not vote for a candidate who supported abortion rights.

What if a Presidential candidate took a position on the following issue that was different from your own, would you still consider voting for him because of his position on other issues, or would you not vote for him under any circumstances?
Base: White Protestant Evangelical Likely Voters
	Still Consider Voting for Him (%)	Would Not Vote for Him Under Any Circumstances (%)	No Answer / Don't Know
Abortion	63	30	7
Gay Marriage	55	38	7
U.S. Policy Toward Iraq	72	20	8

Bush Viewed Favorability

President Bush is still viewed in a favorable light by a majority (56%) of Evangelical voters.

• Two-thirds (65%) approve of his handling of the situation in Iraq.
• A slight minority (46%) approve of his handling of the economy.

 

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone July 31 - August 4, 2008 among a national random sample of 606 White Protestant Evangelical likely voters, age 18 and older throughout America. White Protestant Evangelicals were identified both in a fresh cross-section sample and in other previous Time random-digit dial samples.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/-4.3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

Abt SRBI Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire may be found at: www.srbi.com.

 

Related Links

• EVANGELICAL_LIKELY_VOTE.pdf