September 30, 2008

Obama Surges Amid Financial Crisis;

Palin Favorability Takes Hit

By Seth Brohinsky and Mark Schulman, Abt SRBI

Amid the worst financial crisis many Americans have experienced in their lifetime, Barack Obama has surged ahead of John McCain in the most recent Time Magazine Poll, conducted September 26 – 29. Obama now leads McCain by seven points, 50% to 43% among likely voters with 5% undecided.

Obama has widened his lead from Time’s pre-convention poll, when he led McCain by 5 points, 46% to 41%.

• Among voters with the highest likelihood of voting, Obama leads McCain by 6 points, 50% to 44%.

Warning Signs for McCain: Female Vote Slips

John McCain’s post-convention bounce appears to have subsided. There are now serious warning signs that his support is beginning to wane, particularly among women.

• Obama now leads McCain by 17 points among likely female voters, 55% to 38%. Just after the Republican convention, a Time poll had the race virtually tied among women, 48% Obama, 47% McCain.
• Obama leads among white women 48% to 45%. In 2004, Bush won the vote of white women by 11 points, 55%-44%, according to the exit polls.
• Obama also leads among married women, 50%-44%. Bush carried married women by 15 points in 2004, 57%-42%.

• Almost one-quarter (23%) of McCain supporters say there is a chance they may change their mind, compared to 15% of Obama supporters.
• Among independents, McCain now trails Obama, 47% - 42%.

Palin Has Lowest Favorability

After a big initial splash, Sarah Palin, McCain’s running mate, now has the lowest favorability rating (47%) and highest unfavorable rating (40%) among the major Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates in the election.

Obama Gains from Debate

Almost three-quarters (73%) of likely voters watched Friday’s Presidential debate. More voters (41%) thought Obama won than McCain (27%).

• About one-quarter (23%) of those who watched the debate said it made them more likely to vote for Obama. Only 16% said it made them more likely to vote for McCain.

Main Street: Voters’ Financial Situation Worsening

Almost two-thirds voters (65%) report that that their own economic situation has worsened in the past twelve months. Only 5% say their situation has gotten better, with 30% saying it remained the same.

• A majority of voters (59%) who have suffered economically support Obama.

Obama Not a “Traditional Black Candidate”

Most voters (57%) also see Obama as a candidate of a new generation of Americans; just 5% see him as a traditional Black candidate.

• This sentiment is true among a majority of White voters (52%) and almost all Black voters (85%).

Race and the Election: Some Gains, Some Losses for Obama

The issue of race has been a constant theme in this election, with many pundits predicting how it will affect the outcome. Most voters (90%) say Obama’s race will not be a factor in their vote (although 10% of 18-34 year olds and 16% of Black voters say Obama’s race has made them more likely to vote for Obama).

While some voters may be reluctant to admit Obama’s race will impact their vote; 38% say they know someone who is more likely to support Obama because of his race. Additionally, 44% say they know someone who is less likely to vote for Obama because of his race.

A majority of voters feel the following statements, both positive and negative; describe Barack Obama and his campaign for the Presidency at least some...

• Obama brings together different races and backgrounds – 76%
• Obama isn’t white or black; he’s a little of both – 65%
• Obama’s election to the Presidency would help restore a sense of hope and inspiration to America – 61%
• Obama is pretty much just another politician – 56%
• Obama’s election would help to heal America’s racial history and division – 55%
• Obama gives a great speech, but doesn’t have many other qualifications for President – 50%

Among voters with an unfavorable opinion of Obama (33%); most (78%) view his liberal voting record as a major reason. Other reasons include...

• He doesn’t have enough experience to be President – 77%
• He opposed the troop surge in Iraq – 58%

Obama Seen as Better Prepared to Handle Financial Crisis

Barack Obama has also gained some support as a result of the financial crises that has gripped the nation in recent days. Voters give Barack Obama the edge over John McCain, 45%-37%, as being the better leader to handle the situation.

Most voters disapprove of how President Bush (65%) and the Republicans in Congress (57%) have handled the financial crisis so far.

• 49% disapprove of how the Democrats in Congress have handled the crisis.
• 45% disapprove of how John McCain has handled the crisis.
• 32% disapprove of how Barack Obama has handled the crisis.

Most voters (54%) agree that Congress should have taken more time to consider the rescue plan.

 

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone September 26 – 29, 2008 among a national random sample (RDD) of 1,133 likely voters, age 18 and older throughout America. The poll includes limited interviews with cell phone respondents.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

The sample’s partisan distribution is as follows:

• Democrats: 34%
• Republicans: 27%
• Independents: 30%

Abt SRBI Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found at: www.srbi.com. Contact: Mark Schulman, at 212-779-7700.

 

Related Links

• ObamaSurges.pdf