January 30, 2008

Younger Voters Will Likely Impact Upcoming Election;

Tilt Toward Democratic Party Candidates

By Seth Brohinsky and Mark Schulman, Abt SRBI

Time/Abt SRBI Poll: Year of the Youth Vote

The traditional wisdom is that most young people are uninterested in politics and disengaged. However, this year’s early primaries have found signs that younger people may be a bigger political force than in the past.

A new Time Magazine poll conducted on January 18 – 21 finds three-quarters (74%) of young people, ages 18 and 29, say they are paying attention to the presidential campaign. Additionally, a similar percentage (71%) says they are interested in the presidential campaigns.

    • Americans among this younger age group are following news
     about politics and government more
     often (70% say regularly or occasionally) than news about
     celebrities and entertainment (58%),
     sports (57%), or business and money (54%).

    • Among registered voters in this age group, eight-in-ten (80%)      are following news about politics
     and government regularly or occasionally.

 

Democrats Best Understand Needs

Democrats stand to benefit most from increased participation by young people. A near majority of young people (46%) say the Democrats relate and understand their needs better than Republicans (33%). Democrats also have an edge over Republicans among independents, 46% - 24%. However, 1 in 5 independents (21%) say that neither party understands the needs of people like themselves.

Obama Leads Hillary, with Republican Candidates Trailing

Among those young people who say they are likely to vote or have already voted in their state’s primary election or caucus, Barack Obama (29%) is the most popular choice, leading Hillary Clinton (20%) by 9 percentage points. The most popular Republican is Rudy Guiliani, but only a scant 10%.

With Democrats choosing between a woman and an African American as the party’s candidate for president, Obama leads Clinton among young Black voters. Obama also has a 31% to 22% edge among young female voters.

Obama Most Favored; Divided on Clinton

Democrats Obama (55%) and Clinton (46%) have the highest favorable ratings among young people. The highest rated Republican, John McCain, receives favorable ratings from just 36%. 

    • However, Hillary Clinton also receives the greatest percentage of unfavorable ratings (47%).
     Rudy Guiliani (42%) and Mitt Romney (42%) were just behind Clinton in unfavorable ratings.

           

View Both Obama and Clinton as Inspirational and Experienced

Young Americans view Obama and Clinton as:

    • The most inspirational candidates (53% Obama vs. 51% Clinton).
    • The candidates who will change things in Washington (Clinton 54% vs. Obama 52%).
    • The most experienced candidates (Obama 52% and Clinton 52%).
    • The candidates who care about people like them (Clinton 55% vs. Obama 53%).

Among Democrats

Among young people who identify as Democrats, Obama is still the most popular choice with 41% of the vote, Hillary Clinton is second with 32%, and John Edwards third with 11%.

Young Democrats view Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as:

    • The most inspirational candidates (Obama 65% vs. Clinton 64%).
    • The candidates who will change things in Washington (Clinton 70% vs. Obama 67%).
    • The most experienced candidates (Obama 65% and Clinton 61%).
    • The candidates who care about people like them (Clinton 66% vs. Obama 61%).

Among Republicans

Among younger Republican voters, there is no clear favorite; Mike Huckabee is on top with 21%, followed by Rudy Guiliani with 18%, John McCain third with 15%, and Mitt Romney fourth with 14%.

Among young Republicans:

    • The most inspirational candidate is John McCain (54%).
    • The candidates who will change things in Washington are John McCain (51%) and
     Rudy Guiliani (51%).
    • The most experienced candidates are Barack Obama (48%), John McCain (47%), and
     Rudy Guiliani (46%).
    • The candidates who care about people like them are John McCain (56%) and Rudy Guilaini
     (52%).

Among Independents

Independents overwhelmingly chose Barack Obama (39%) as the candidate they would vote for.  Hillary Clinton was second with 22%, and Rudy Guiliani and John McCain were tied for third with 8%.

Young Independents view Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton as:

    • The most inspirational candidates (56% Obama vs. 51% Clinton).
    • The candidates who will change things in Washington (Obama 55% vs. Clinton 50%).
    • The most experienced candidates (Clinton 58% vs. Obama 50%).
    • The candidates who care about people like them (Clinton 59% vs. Obama 58%).

On Wrong Track

Almost three-quarters (72%) of young people believe the country is on the wrong track.  Most (83%) believe this election will have an impact on the future of the country. 

    • 80% of young people rate the economic conditions in this country as only fair or poor.

    • A majority (54%) say the US was wrong to go to war in Iraq.  Significantly more Democrats
     (75%) and Independents (56%) believe we were wrong than Republicans (26%).

Health Care, Iraq, and Jobs Top Issues

Issues driving their early political interest include:

    • Affordable health care (62%), the Iraq War (59%), and being able to find a stable, good paying
     job (58%) are the top issues a majority of young people worry about the most.

    • Lesser issues for young Americans include the environment (48%), the terrorist attacks in the US
     (45%), the United State’s image an influence in the world (42%), the legality of abortion (40%),
     and illegal immigrants (35%).

 

Television and Internet Top News Sources

Almost 2 in 3 (63%) say that television is their top news source, with 44% citing the Internet. Only 1 in 5 (21%) mention newspapers.

    • More than 1 in 3 (35%) say that they distrust traditional media, such as network news and
     newspapers.

 

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone January 18- January 21, 2008 among a random (RDD) sample of 503 adults, between the ages of 18 and 29, throughout America. The survey includes an oversample of cell phone users conducted because of the high utilization of cell phones in this demographic group. The new RDD sample was supplemented by 18 – 29 year olds identified in previous telephone random-digit-dial samples.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 4 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

Abt SRBI Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below:

www.srbi.com

Related Links

• 4321-Final Report-2008-01-30--2.15pm.pdf