April 8, 2008

Clinton Holds Single-Digit Lead in Keystone State

By: Seth Brohinsky and Mark Schulman

Time/Abt SRBI Poll: Clinton 6 Points Up in Pennsylvania

In the next Democratic primary battleground of Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by eight percentage points, 49% to 41% among likely voters, including leaners, with one in ten still undecided.

“Leaners” Make Clinton Lead Fragile

According to the latest Time Magazine Poll, Clinton’s overall lead of 8 points in Pennsylvania is helped in part by her 11 point advantage over Obama among “leaning voters” (27% to 16%). When these voters are removed, Clinton’s lead shrinks to 6 points over Obama (44% to 38%). Excluding leaners, the number of undecideds doubles, to 18%.

Clinton’s fragile lead is further threatened as nearly three in ten (28%) Clinton supporters (both firm and leaning) have not completely made up their mind.

• A smaller percentage (21%) of Obama’s firm and leaning supporters say the same.

Pennsylvania Democratic Voters Divided by Race, Gender

As in other primary contests, a majority of women (52%), including both decided and “leaning” voters, say they will vote for Clinton, compared to just 38% for Obama. Conversely, Obama has had the support of African Americans; 81% of African Americans in Pennsylvania say they will vote for Obama versus just 10% for Clinton.

• Clinton is strongest among older women (age 45 and over) with nearly six in ten (58%) saying they will vote for her.
• However, Obama has the support of a majority (53%) of younger women (under 45).

Male voters may prove to be the key to each candidate’s success in Pennsylvania. Clinton and Obama are currently in a statistical dead heat among decided and “leaning” male Democratic voters in Pennsylvania with Obama narrowly in front of Clinton, 45% to 44%.

• However, Clinton holds a commanding ten percentage point lead over Obama among white male Democrats (49% to 39%).

Democratic Defections to McCain

John McCain stands to gain support in November. This is especially if Obama wins the nomination.

• One in four (26%) Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain in a general election if Obama were the Democratic nominee.
• Significantly fewer Obama supporters (16%) say they would defect to McCain if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.

Just a slight majority (56%) of Clinton supporters in Pennsylvania say they would vote for Obama in the general election.

• Seven in ten (68%) Obama supporters say they would vote for Clinton in the general election.

Expect Democrats to Win in November

An overwhelming majority of Pennsylvania Democrats believe either Clinton or Obama will win the general election against McCain.

• Seventy-nine percent of Pennsylvania Democrats believe Clinton is likely to beat McCain in the general election.
• Nearly the same percentage (80%) believes Obama would beat McCain.

Views of the Democratic Candidates are Overwhelmingly Positive

Nearly eight in ten Pennsylvania Democrats view both Clinton (77%) and Obama (78%) positively.

• However, Obama is viewed more positively by Clinton supporters (63%) than Clinton is seen by Obama supporters (55%).

Pennsylvania Democrats Want Good Judgment, Strong Leader

When Pennsylvania Democratic likely voters were asked what qualities candidates for President should have, the most important was good judgment (25%), followed closely by a strong leader (21%), and cares about people like me (20%).

• Respondents identify Obama as the candidate who is inspirational (45%) and has a strong moral character (38%).
  • Although, just 11% describe him as being experienced.
• Conversely, Clinton is identified as the candidate who is experienced (45%) and is a strong leader (39%).
  • However, only 23% describe her as inspirational.

Important Issues to Pennsylvania Democrats

Nearly seven in ten (68%) Pennsylvania Democrats see the inability of Washington to solve problems as the main issue facing the country followed closely by the ability to afford health care (67%).

• Other issues include: the ability to find a stable, good paying job (49%), the effects of the housing crisis on my family and friends (48%), and the possibility of future terrorist attacks in the U.S. (43%).

Voters say issue positions trump character in this primary.

• More than seven in ten (72%) of Democratic voters say knowing a candidate shares their views on important issues is more important to them than feeling comfortable about the candidate’s character (22%).

Obama Leads on Credibility

Clinton appears to be paying a price for recent gaffes and “misremembrances.” Following Obama’s mid-May speech seeking to defuse the race issue, fully 58% of voters believe Obama says what he really believes compared to 48% who say the same of Clinton. Nearly the same percentage (45%) believe Clinton says what she thinks voters want to hear compared to just 36% who say the same of Obama.

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone April 2 - April 6, 2008 among a random sample of 676 registered Democratic likely primary voters throughout Pennsylvania. The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 4 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

Abt SRBI Public Affairs conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below:

www.srbi.com

Related Links

• Time/Abt SRBI Survey Questionnaire and Frequencies