Blue and Orange Navigation Bar
home button about srbi button newsroom button practice groups button Market Insights division button study types button data collection button contact srbi button tools button about surveys button
  Abt SRBI Logo
Side Navigation
ARCHIVE
Back to Archive Page
Special Interest image top right
Special Interest image bottom left Special Interest image bottom right




December 15, 2004

Post Election Pulse Check

By Tara Regan and Mark Schulman

There’s no post-election honeymoon for George Bush. He approaches the start of his second term with an approval rating little changed from his middling pre-election level. Just under half of Americans (49%) approve of his performance, about the same as before the election.

Bush’s election victory also has not brightened the nation’s outlook. Half of Americans (50%) still think that the country is headed in the wrong direction, not much changed since the pre-election period. Only 40% see the country on the right track.

No Bush Mandate
The public does not view the magnitude of Bush’s November victory as bestowing a "mandate" to advance his programs on private investment accounts within Social Security or on tax structure change. Americans favor bi-partisanship over mandates.

  • Only about a third of Americans (33%) say Bush has a mandate to allow private investment accounts within the Social Security system, while 46% say no mandate.
  • Only 38% say Bush has a mandate to change the current tax structure.
  • An overwhelming majority (84%) want Bush and Congressional Republicans to "work closely" with the Democrats rather than just advancing their own agenda.

Also weighing Bush down is concern over one-party control of both the White House and Congress. A majority (52% - 30%) believe that split-party control of government is better than the current one party Republican control of both the White House and Congress.

Issues Trump Character in Bush Vote
About half (48%) of Bush voters say they voted for him because of his positions on issues facing the nation, while one-quarter attributed their vote for Bush to his character and personality. About one-in-five (21%) took both into consideration when choosing Bush for President.

With all the talk about the impact of moral values and the economy during the campaign season, Iraq has now become the single dominant issue facing Bush, according the Time Poll. Half of Americans (50%) cite the Iraq situation as the "most important problem" facing Bush in his second term. Other issues receiving scant mention include the economy (10%) and terrorism (6%). Only 2% mention moral values issues.

Bush 43rd Compared to Bush 41st
George W. Bush still has some big shoes to fill. His father, George H.W. Bush out-performs the current President on a number of attributes including:

  • Honest and trustworthy - Bush 41 has the edge here by +18 points, 37% - 19%.

  • Understands the issues - Bush 41 has the advantage here, also by +18 points, 43% - 25%.

  • Is likeable - Even in one of the the current President’s most dominant category, his father outperforms him 38%-28%.

  • Sticks to his positions, even if unpopular - Here, current President Bush outperforms his father 56%-16% in sticking to his positions.

Partisanship clearly flavors the comparisons. Republicans are more likely to associate the current President with being honest, caring, understanding of the issues and a strong leader. Democrats are more likely to associate these attributes to the former President, George H.W. Bush.

Bush vs. Kennedy Families
The Bushes and the Kennedys are America’s two foremost contemporary political families. Both families receive largely favorable ratings in the most recent Time Poll. When asked for overall impressions of each family, the Kennedy’s get a 64% favorable rating, while the Bush’s get a 59% favorable rating.

Not surprisingly, the ratings do have a partisan tinge. Democrats are 85% favorable toward the Kennedys, while Republicans give the Kennedys only 42% favorable rating. By contrast, Republicans are 93% favorable toward the Bushes, with Democrats only 37% favorable.

Do family ties influence the vote? About 1 in 5 say that they're more likely to vote for a Kennedy (19%), with about the same number (18%) "less likely" to vote for a Kennedy. Bush family ties are less helpful - 14% are more likely to vote for a Bush, but 26% are less likely.

Rove Remains Behind the Scenes
Many credit Karl Rove with being Bush’s major political strategist. For a majority of Americans, Rove remains hidden behind the throne. More than half, 57%, have never heard of Rove. Only 1 in 5 are very (6%) or somewhat familiar (15%) with him.

Americans familiar with Rove are almost evenly divided on whether he exercises too much influence (29%) in the administration or about the right amount (33%). Even among those familiar with Rove, 18% did not know how much influence he wields.

Tort Reform: Tilt toward Limiting Awards
About half (50%) think the government should limit when people can sue for personal injury and the size of the settlement while two-in-five (40%) think the government should not be allowed to limit these lawsuits. Republicans are more in favor of this limitation (63%) than Democrats (42%).



Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone December 13-14, 2004 among a random sample of 1,009 adults, age 18 and older throughout America.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found at: www.srbi.com.

Back to Top

Related Links

 

Abt SRBI Inc.