Blue and Orange Navigation Bar
home button about srbi button newsroom button practice groups button Market Insights division button study types button data collection button contact srbi button tools button about surveys button
  Abt SRBI Logo
Side Navigation
ARCHIVE
Back to Archive Page
Special Interest image top right
Special Interest image bottom left Special Interest image bottom right




December 2, 2005

Bush Counter-Offensive: No Traction Yet

By Mark Schulman and Tara Regan


President Bush's counter-offensive against his critics shows little sign so far of reversing the President's flagging job approval ratings. Bush's approval rating is at 41% approve - 53% disapprove, according to the latest Time Poll. This number is little changed from his 42%-52% rating in early September following the Hurricane Katrina disaster.

The poll also finds little change in other key indicators:

  • 3-in-5 Americans (60%) still see the country going down the wrong track, unchanged since September.

  • Bush continues to have negative approval ratings in his handling of the situation in Iraq (60% disapprove - 38% approve), illegal immigration (57% - 27%) and the economy (55% - 40%).

  • In the "red" states, that is the states responsible for Bush's 2004 re-election, his approval rating is only 47% approve - 45% disapprove.
Approve or Disapprove of How Bush is Handling His Job?
11/29-12/1
Total
(%)
Republican
(%)
Democrat
(%)
Independent
(%)
Red
States
(%)
Blue
States
(%)
Approve
41
77
13
36
47
34
Disapprove
53
17
83
57
45
63
Don't Know
 5
 6
 3
 7
 7
 3

The latest national Time Poll of 1,004 Americans was conducted by telephone between November 29 to December 1, 2005.

Iraq and Energy Prices Main Drags on Bush Job Rating
The two main issues undercutting the President's standing are Iraq and energy prices, according to the Time Poll. When Americans were asked about the negative impact of nine issues, 45% said Bush's policies in Iraq and high energy prices had a "very negative" impact. Other major drags of the President's standing include:

  • the federal budget deficit (39% say "very negative" impact),
  • cronyism charges, that is, putting friends in high places (39%),
  • his handling of hurricane recovery in the Gulf coast (37%),
  • his handling of the economy (35%), and
  • the failure of his social security initiative (32%).

Slightly less important to the President's sliding poll numbers are:

  • the indictment of senior White House aide Lewis "Scooter" Libby (26% say "very negative" impact)
  • his handling of illegal immigration (24%), which the President has addressed this week with his proposed "guest worker" program.
Have Any Had a Negative Impact on How You Rate
Bush's Job Performance?

Base: 1,004 American Adults                                         
 
Very
Negative
(%)
Somewhat
Negative
(%)
Negative,
No Degree
(%)
No
Negative
Impact(%)
No
Answer
(%)
Policies in Iraq
45
18
1
33
 3
Higher Gas/
Energy Prices
45
18
2
34
 1
Federal
Budget Deficit
39
22
1
33
 5
Putting
People Close
in High Places
39
23
1
32
 5
Handling of
Hurricane
Recovery
Efforts
37
19
1
42
 1
Handling of
Economy
35
23
1
39
2
Failure of Social
Security
Initiative
32
20
1
40
 6
Investigations and Indictment Surrounding Outing of CIA Agent
26
22
1
41
10
Proposals Dealing with Illegal Immigrants
24
26
2
36
13

No Rebound for Bush on Iraq, but Some Hope for Iraq Stability
Bush's recent partisan offensive to boost his Iraq policy has changed few minds so far. Half of Americans (50%) still think that the United States was wrong to go to war with Iraq, largely unchanged for the past year or so. Bush's approval rating with regard to his handling of the Iraq situation is 60% disapprove - 38% approve down slightly from September (57% disapprove - 39% approve).

  • Americans are split on whether the President was truthful and honest (45%) or deliberately misled Americans (48%) to build the case for war.
  • Americans are also evenly split on whether to pull out of Iraq "regardless of conditions of the ground" (47%) versus keeping most of the troops in Iraq until the new government is stable (40%). Almost one-in-ten (8%) say we should increase the number of troops in Iraq.
  • About half (51%) say that US actions in Iraq have made conditions in the United States "more dangerous."

The public does hold out some hope that the new Iraqi government will be able to provide a stable and reasonably democratic society. Almost three-in-five (56%), said that a democratic outcome for Iraq was either very likely (12%) or somewhat likely (44%). About 1 in 3 have held out little hope for a stable democratic future in Iraq.

Can Bush Regain Support?
The public is split on whether Bush can regain the lost ground and garner higher approval ratings with about half (46%) saying the President is likely to recover from these setbacks and half (49%) saying he is unlikely to recover.

Equally troubling for the Administration is that among those who disapprove of the job Bush is doing, about three-quarters (76%) say they are "unlikely to change their mind."

  • A large majority of Democrats (86%) and Independents (74%) who disapprove of Bush say they are "unlikely" to change their mind.

However, Bush still stands a chance of recovering ground among some of the "fallen away Republicans" that is, Republicans who currently disapprove of Bush:

  • Almost half (48%) of Republicans who currently disapprove of Bush say there may be a time in the future when they will approve of him.
  • About half (52%) of those who voted for Bush in 2004 but now disapprove of him say they may change their minds.
Do You Think You Might Approve of the Job
Bush is Doing in the Future?

Base: Disapprove of the Job Bush is Doing
11/29-12/1
Total
(%)
Republican
(%)
Democrat
(%)
Independent
(%)
Might Approve
19
48
10
21
Unlikely to Change Mind
76
48
86
74
Don't Know
 5
 4
 3
 5

Bush or Kerry Today? Dead Heat, Again
If the presidential election were being held today between George Bush and John Kerry, it would be a dead heat with about half (47%) voting for Bush and the same amount (48%) voting for Kerry.

  • Looking forward to the 2008 election, three-in-five (60%) say they would like the next President to be "completely different" from George W. Bush. About one-third (36%) say they would like someone similar.

The Threat of Terrorism
A majority (59%) are either "very" (15%) or "somewhat" (45%) worried that there will be another terrorist attack on the United States in the next few months. Two-in-five (40%) say they are not worried.

Although almost two-thirds (63%) think the U.S. is better prepared to respond to terrorism now than prior September 11th, one-third (34%) think the U.S. is not. Additionally,

  • Slightly more Democrats (66%) than Republicans (55%) are worried about a terrorist attack on U.S. soil.
  • Republicans have more faith in the preparedness of the United States to respond to terrorism than Democrats (80% - 54%).

Immigration - Guest Worker Proposal Popular
A lopsided majority still give Bush negative ratings on his handling of illegal immigration, this even after his immigration reform offensive this week. Almost two-thirds (64%) say that illegal immigration is a very serious problem in the United States. The issue plays better with Bush's base, with Republicans believing it is a more serious issue than Democrats (70% - 59%).

Although a majority believe the U.S. is not doing enough to secure its borders (74%) and that illegal immigrants hurt the U.S. economy (64%),

  • Most (72%) favor a guest worker program for illegal immigrants, with a quarter (24%) opposing.
  • The public is split though on whether illegal immigrants should be eligible to register for the program in the U.S. (50%) or have to return to their own countries to apply (45%).

Little Holiday Economic Cheer
Despite a rallying stock market and encouraging economic indicators, two-thirds would rate current economic conditions as "only fair" (42%) or "poor" (24%). One-third rate the current economy favorably.

This economic pessimism has implications for the upcoming holiday season.

  • About half (46%) say they will spend about the same money as last year on holiday shopping, with almost 2-in-5 (38%) saying they will spend less. Three-in-twenty (15%) say they will spend more money this holiday season than last year.
  • Additionally, about three-quarters (73%) say they will be spending more on practical items this holiday season than luxury items (16%).

There is little economic optimism going into 2006 with 7-in-10 believing that the economy will either remain the same (43%) or get worse (27%). About one-quarter believe it will get better (26%). The economic issue that is causing the most concern going into 2006 is fuel prices (69% major concern) followed by inflation (52%), the job market (50%), rising interest rates (47%) and the possible bursting of the housing bubble (34%).

Rice Unscathed, but Cheney and Rumsfeld Suffer
Iraq and other issues have taken a toll on both Vice President Dick Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Both have sagging approval ratings. Vice President Dick Cheney (45% disapprove - 32% approve) and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (42% disapprove - 35% approve) appear to have been the most tarnished with negative approval ratings (with about a quarter responding "don't know"). However,

  • Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has emerged seemingly most unscathed from recent negative events surrounding the Administration with the strongest approval rating of the Administration (53% approve - 21% disapprove).

On the CIA agent outing, a majority (59%) categorize the charges against Lewis "Scooter" Libby as "serious" as opposed to just a technicality (27%). Democrats are more likely to view the charges as serious ( 66% serious vs. 24% technicality) than Republicans (49% serious vs. 35% technicality).

Although about half (48%) think that overall the Bush administration has been about as honest and truthful as other presidential administrations, one-third (34%) think the Bush administration has been less honest and trustworthy. Almost one-in-five (17%) think the current administration has been more honest and trustworthy.

Congressional Ratings Sag: Republicans May Suffer Most
A little more than half (55%) disapprove of the job that Congress is doing, with about one-third (33%) approving.

  • If the elections for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today almost half (48%) would more likely vote for the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate (36%).


Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between November 29 and December 1, 2005 among a national random sample of 1,004 adults, age 18 and older throughout America.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.

Back to Top

Related Link

 

Abt SRBI Inc.