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March 24, 2006
Americans Unhappy with Republican Congress, But
Democratic Recapture Far From Certain
By Mark Schulman and Tara Regan
The generic horserace numbers may spell trouble for the GOP-controlled House in the November elections. The latest Time Poll finds the public unhappy with the performance of Congress (39% approve - 49% disapprove) and Democrats holding a 9 point lead in the generic vote for House of Representatives seats (50% - 41%). Americans clearly favor Democratic control of the Congress by 49% - 38% over the Republicans.
The Abramoff bribery scandal has left its scars. Two in three Americans (67%) believe that members of Congress vote for what’s in the best interests of lobbyists and special interests rather than what’s in their best interests.
The Time Poll, conducted March 22-23, finds that with President Bush's job approval rating at 39%, and his political capital in short supply, the 2006 elections might have the makings of a political upheaval.
Democrats Shouldn't Pop the Cork Yet
However, the Time Poll finds that the opposition Democrats are a long way from sealing the deal and capturing control.
- Congressional Democrats have thus far failed to make the case that they are doing a better job than the Republicans, with the approval ratings of both parties in Congress sagging (39% approve Democrats - 39% approve Republicans).
- A large majority (56%) don't think the Democrats have a clear set of policies for the country.
- The Democrats thus far have failed to "nationalize" the election as an anti-Bush vote, with only 32% of registered voters saying that they would most likely vote for a candidate who opposes Bush. Almost half of voters (44%) say it doesn't matter to them whether their Congressional candidate supports or opposes Bush.
- Only 39% give Democrats the edge on dealing with government corruption. While that gives Democrats a 14 point edge over the Republicans, 1 in 3 (33%) say that neither party stands out here, including 42% of Independents.
- Most importantly, almost two in three Americans (63%) approve of the job that their own Congressional member is doing, affirming the old adage that "politics is local," and not a sign of impending upheaval.
More caveats: Generic Vote Usually Tilts Democratic No Matter
The generic vote is not a particularly good predictor of midterm House outcomes, particularly this early
in the race. Democrats almost always hold a lead over Republicans in the generic vote of registered
voters, with low turnout often a factor in the outcomes. In fact, in 1994, when the Republicans captured
the House, Democrats held a narrow lead (+6 in Gallup Polls) in the spring 1994 generic vote. The
Republicans took only a modest lead (+7 among likely voters) in the generic poll vote late in the
campaign after they introduced the Contract with America. They upended the Democrats on election day to
gain control of the Senate 53-47 and the House 230-204, a 54 vote House swing. However, in 2006, a shift
of just 15 House seats would shift control to the Democrats.
Most Seats Safe
Beyond the generic party preference data, another giant obstacle stands in the way of a Democratic
sweep: redistricting has insulated most members of Congress by creating large numbers of safe seats in
which incumbents face little real opposition. Congressional Quarterly estimates that there may be as few
as 32 in any way competitive or open races out of the 435 House seats at this point. Encouraging for the
Democrats is that a majority of these competitive seats are currently held by Republicans.
Also aiding the Democrats is that seventeen Republicans have now announced their retirement so far this year compared with just nine Democrats. A number of these open seats are seen as competitive.
Democrats Have Issue Edge, Except on Terrorism
The latest Time poll finds Congressional Democrats with a leg up on the Republicans in dealing with most
issues. The one exception is terrorism, an issue which the Republicans have ridden to victory in several
recent elections. Republicans have an 11 point edge on terrorism (44% vs. 33% for Democrats).
In spite of growing criticism of the Iraq war, the public is fairly split (41% Republicans - 40% Democrats) on which party would do a better job dealing with the war in Iraq.
Democrats hold a solid lead over Republicans in:
- Rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina (48% say Democrats would do a better job - 21% say Republicans)
- Understanding the needs of people like yourself (52% Democrats - 33% Republicans)
- Standing up to lobbyists and special interests (40% Democrats - 22% Republicans)
- Protecting the rights of the American people (48% Democrats - 35% Republicans)
- Dealing with the issue of corruption in government (39% Democrats - 25% Republicans)
- Managing government spending (46% Democrats - 31% Republicans)
- Managing tax policies (45% Democrats - 38% Republicans)
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Which Party Would Do a Better Job of…? |
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Democrat (%) |
Republican (%) |
Dem– Rep. Gap |
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Rebuilding New Orleans/Gulf Coast after Katrina |
48% |
21% |
+27 |
|
Understanding the needs of people like yourself |
52% |
33% |
+19 |
|
Standing up to lobbyists/special interests |
40% |
22% |
+18 |
|
Managing government spending |
46% |
31% |
+15 |
|
Dealing with the issue of corruption in government |
39% |
25% |
+14 |
|
Protecting the rights of the American people |
48% |
35% |
+13 |
|
Managing tax policies |
45% |
38% |
+7 |
|
Dealing with the War in Iraq |
40% |
41% |
-1 |
|
Dealing with Terrorism |
33% |
44% |
-11 |
Bush's Approval at 39%
The President’s approval rating is now 39% approve - 56% disapprove, perhaps a slight rebound over recent
readings. Bush’s approval rating dipped to the mid and low 30s in many polls following the recent ports
controversy.
The President’s ratings continue to lag on:
- the situation in Iraq (62% disapprove - 35% approve).
- his handling of the economy (58% disapprove - 39% approve
- handling the war on terrorism (52% disapprove - 44% approve), which continues to slide from (47% approve - 48% disapprove) in late January.
- providing leadership in times of crises with about half (49%) approving and half (48%) disapproving.
About 3-in-5 (60%) say the country is off on the wrong track (34% say we are heading in the right direction).
Partisan Divide Over Bush's Competence
Although many of Bush's critics question his competence as President, and have taken to describing some
of the President's actions as "incompetent," the public is divided along partisan lines. Overall:
- A little more than half (51%) would describe President Bush as either "very" (24%) or "somewhat" (28%) competent.
- Slightly less than half (47%) describe Bush as very (26%) or somewhat (21%) incompetent.
Most Republicans (90%) describe the President as competent, while almost three-quarters of Democrats (73%) label him incompetent.
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Would You Describe President Bush as… |
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Total (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Independent (%) |
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Very competent |
24 |
57 |
6 |
15 |
|
Somewhat competent |
28 |
33 |
19 |
31 |
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Somewhat incompetent |
21 |
6 |
28 |
25 |
|
Very incompetent |
26 |
3 |
45 |
28 |
Confidence Continues to Falter on Iraq
Confidence in the war in Iraq continues to fall amidst continued violence and hold-ups in the forming
of a new, stable Iraqi government. The President’s current offensive to reverse public opposition has
achieved little.
- Over half (53%) still think the United States was wrong in going to war with Iraq, with 42% thinking the U.S. was right, little changed from January.
- Confidence in building a stable and reasonably democratic society has slipped since late November 2005. About half (49%) now believe it is likely that the new government will achieve these goals, down 7 points since November. Almost 1 in 2 (48%) now have little or no confidence that Iraq will achieve a stable democracy, compared to 37% in November.
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between March 22 and
March 23, 2006 among a national random sample of 1,003 adults, age 18 and older throughout America.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin
of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including
sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.
The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:
31% Democrat
28% Republican
33% Independent
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all
interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.
Related Link
