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June 30, 2006
No Relief for President
By Mark Schulman
A string of positives for the President in the past few weeks has failed to budge his low approval ratings, mired at 35%. President Bush got no lasting lift from the killing of terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the filling of three key Iraqi security ministers in the al-Maliki government, the clearing of Karl Rove, and the President’s surprise visit to Baghdad.
The latest Time Poll, conducted June 27 - 29 among 1,003 adults, in fact finds that almost 2 in 3 Americans still disapprove of his handling of the Iraq war(64% disapprove - 33% approve), with approval down two points since March.
- A majority of Americans, 53%, still label the Iraq war a mistake, unchanged from March.
- Almost half (48%) see little prospect of the Iraqis being able to build a stable and reasonably democratic society, with only 39% responding positively.
- Only 28% say that the country is going is the right direction, down from 34% in March.
The President's job approval continues to lag on handling the economy (36% approve - 58% disapprove) and handling on the war on terrorism (45% approve - 51% disapprove), once his strong suit. Both are little changed since March.
Prefer Democrats for Congress
Congressional Republicans continue to face an uphill battle in the upcoming elections. The latest poll finds that voters prefer Democrats over Republicans in the generic Congressional races, 47% - 35%, little changed from March (45% - 37%).
As Congressional Republicans decide whether to run with Bush or run away from him,a little more than 2 in 5 of voters (43%) say Bush doesn’t matter in their vote for Congress.
- Only 1 in 5 voters (21%) are more likely to vote for a candidate who supports Bush, with 33% more likely to support a candidate who opposes Bush.
Republican Dilemma: Rank-and-File Republicans Support Bush
The dilemma for many Congressional Republicans is that Bush remains popular with many Republican rank-and-file, who still give the President a 73% approval rating. By contrast, only 26% of swing-vote independents give Bush positive ratings. Turnout among the Republican faithful, many of whom support Bush, may be a major determinant of election outcomes in many contested districts.
Running For Congress by Running Against It?
Americans give Congress an even lower job rating than they give the President. Only less than 1 in 3, 31%, approve of the job Congress is doing, with 55% disapproving. Disapproval of Congress runs across the partisan divide, with 46% of Republicans, 55% of Democrats, and 66% of Independents disapproving.
Methodology
This Time Poll was conducted by telephone between June 27 and June 29, 2006 among a national random sample of 1,003 adults, age 18 and older throughout America. The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of adult Americans.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.
The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:
32% Democrat
31% Republican
25% Independent
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all
interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.
Related Link
