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July 18, 2006

Clinton Tops Likely 2008 Democratic Field

By Mark Schulman

Hillary Rodham Clinton is not only the Democratic front-runner, but is also within striking distance of likely Republican candidates at this early stage, according to a new Time Poll, conducted July 13-17.

The New York Senator tops her party's candidate field:

  • Her favorability rating stands at 53%, tops among possible Democratic contenders. Al Gore stands at 49%, John Edwards at 46%, and John Kerry at 45%.
  • Clinton is also the top vote-getter by a thin margin among the Democratic candidates, with 46% of Americans saying that they would "definitely" or "probably" support Clinton, followed by Al Gore at 41%, John Kerry at 40% and John Edwards at 36%.

Clinton at this point is the Democratic candidate with the highest Democratic party support, with 76% of her party saying that they would definitely (37%) or probably (39%) support her. John Kerry gets a lesser 71% of Democratic support (24% definitely - 47% probably), followed by Al Gore (67%), and John Edwards (56%). However, almost 1 in 5 Democratic party voters say they will not support Clinton (19%), Kerry (20%), or Edwards (20%).

Clinton Best-Known Candidate
One reason for Clinton's poll strength over two years out from the election is that she is the best-known candidate in the field for either party. Only a scant 3% of Americans are unfamiliar with Clinton, compared to 8% for John Kerry, 23% for John Edwards, 18% for John McCain and 11% for Rudy Guiliani.

Higher awareness may be boosting Clinton's positives vis--vis other, lesser-known candidates. However, Clinton's negatives - 44% give her negative ratings - are in line with the other Democratic candidates. For example, John Kerry has a 46% negative rating and Al Gore gets 47% negative. Only John Edwards has a lower negative score, 31%, but almost 1 in 4 (23%) didn't know enough about Edwards to rate him.

Weak Support Among Independents
A major problem for Democratic candidates is among independents, the key swing vote. Over half of independents (53%) say they will definitely or probably not support Clinton, Kerry (55%) or Gore (55%). Edwards fares slightly better, with a lesser 40% saying they would not support him, with 22% not sure.

Clinton Tops Democrats in Red States
Clinton runs stronger than Kerry, Edwards or Gore in the so-called "red states" - states that went for Bush in 2004. In these red states, 44% would support Clinton, 39% would support Gore, and 36% would support Kerry or Edwards.

While she clearly leads the Democratic pack, other candidates have over two years to define or redefine themselves to the public. For example, two years out in 1990, Bill Clinton was hardly known, but went on to win the nomination and the election. Jimmy Carter was a relative unknown in 1974.

Republican Contenders
Two potential Republican contenders, former New York City Mayor Rudy Guiliani and Arizona Senator John McCain, lead the GOP field.

  • 50% would definitely or probably support Rudy Guiliani, with 15% undecided.
  • 43% would definitely or probably support John McCain, with 22% undecided.

Guiliani at this stage attracts stronger support than McCain from Republicans, 73% - 60%. Almost half of Independents would support Guiliani (49%), while 46% would support McCain.

Trial Heats: Clinton vs. McCain -- Too Close to Call
In the poll's trial heats, Republican John McCain virtually ties with Clinton, but easily tops Kerry and Gore. Among the registered voters only in the Time Poll, McCain barely edges out Clinton by just 2 points, 49% - 47% -- within the poll's error margin. By contrast, McCain outdistances Kerry by 10 points, 52% - 42% and tops Gore by 9 points, 52% - 43%.

Much of the McCain margin comes from the support of Independents. Against Clinton, McCain attracts 51% of Independents vs. 44% for Clinton. McCain's lead among Independents against Kerry is an even wider 20 points. Gore is 16 points down among Independents against McCain.

Democratic "X" factor - Clinton Dominates Women's Vote
Some Democratic pundits point to Hillary's potential strength among women as the "X" factor that could propel her into the White House. The Time Poll does find some support for the "X" factor. In the trial heats against McCain, Clinton receives 53% of the women's vote, compared to 47% for Kerry, and 48% for Gore.

The "Y" factor - Republicans Dominate Male Vote
Republicans clearly dominate the "Y" chromosome - men. However, among registered voters, Clinton scores better than Kerry, 40% - 36%, and Gore, 40% - 38%, in attracting the male vote. However, a McCain candidacy would receive 56% of the male vote against Clinton, 57% versus Kerry, and 58% versus Gore.

Most Say Gender Doesn't Matter
Before querying about Hillary Clinton and other contenders, the Time Poll asked Americans, "In general, these days, would you prefer to have a man or a woman as President, or doesn't it matter to you?" More than 2 in 3 people (69%) said gender didn't matter. Just 19% would prefer a man, with 11% preferring a woman. About 1 in 5 men (20%) and women (17%) would prefer a man. Only 7% of men would prefer a women, with 15% of women preferring a woman.

  • Among Republicans, 36% prefer a man, compared to only 11% of Democrats and 16% of Independents.

What "Bill" Problem? Clinton with 70% Approval
Bill Clinton's legacy as President remains a very positive one, in spite of various "womanizing" scandals that rocked his administration and led to his being impeached. Two-thirds of Americans (66%) have a very favorable (34%) or somewhat favorable (32%) view of Bill Clinton. The job approval rating of his presidency today is 70% -- twice the approval rating of President George W. Bush.

  • Contrasted to likely Democratic candidates today, Bill Clinton enjoys a high job rating among both men (69%) and women (71%).

Hillary Should Stand on Her Own: No "Two for One"
Only less than 1 in 3 Americans (30%) want Bill Clinton to play a major role in Hillary Clinton's campaign, while 37% want him to play a minor role. Only 30% say he should play no role at all. Bill Clinton often said during his administration that the public was getting "two for one," with both Bill and Hillary participating in the Presidency.

  • In spite of his personal popularity, most voters (60%) say that Bill Clinton's involvement in the campaign would have little effect on their vote decision. Only 1 in 4 (25%) would be less likely to vote for Hillary because of Bill's campaign involvement, while 14% would be more likely to vote for Hillary.
  • Most Americans would want Bill to play some role in a Hillary Clinton administration, but only 18% want him to play a major role.

Some Baggage from Lewinsky Affair
Only 24% say that Hillary should have divorced Bill Clinton following his affair with Monica Lewinsky, with 44% agreeing that she should have stayed with him.

  • 44% say that Hillary's decision to stay with Bill at the time was more to advance her political career, while 37% believe she stayed with Bill more because she was committed to their marriage.

Public views of Hillary Clinton's motives are highly colored by partisanship. A majority of Democrats (56%) believe Hillary stayed married because of her commitment to the marriage, while 72% of Republicans ascribe political motives to her decision.

Profile of Hillary: Highly Partisan Views
Democrats and Republicans see two very different Hillary Rodham Clintons. Both sides agree (describes her "a lot") that she's intelligent (91% Democrats, 73% Republicans, 81% Independents) and would stand up for issues important to women (81% Democrats, 60% Republicans, 67% Independents). That's where the similarity ends.

    Democrats describe Clinton as:

  • a strong leader (77% describes her "a lot");
  • has strong moral values (69%);
  • would protect American against terrorism (67%);
  • cares about people like yourself (61%);
  • likable (61%).

Only 26% of Democrats describe Clinton as "putting her own political interests ahead of what she really believes."

    Republicans describe Clinton as a politically ambitious opportunist:

  • Would say or do anything to further her political ambitions (68%);
  • Puts her own political interests ahead of what she really believes (60%);
  • Has changed her positions on issues for political reasons (53%);
  • A divider, not a uniter (52%);

Republicans also give Clinton low scores on protecting America against terrorism (17%), being likable (13%), and on keeping the American military strong (8%).

Independents fall right in the middle, with 47% saying she'll protect America against terrorism, 46% describing her as a strong leader, 41% as having strong moral values, and 35% putting her own political interests ahead of what she really thinks.

Clinton Viewed As a Moderate
A majority (54%) describe Clinton's politics as moderate, between liberal and conservative. However, partisanship also colors how Americans describe Clinton's politics. A large majority of Republicans (62%) describe Clinton as a liberal. Only 24% of Democrats and 33% of Independents describe Clinton as a liberal. Most Democrats (67%) and Independents (60%) describe her as a moderate.

End of Bush "Dynasty" - at least for now
By 2008, members of the Clinton and Bush families will have served in the White House for 20 years. Should Hillary Clinton win the Presidency in 2008, a Clinton or Bush would have been President for up to 28 years straight. The public is split on whether to be concerned or not about these two family "dynasties" dominating Presidential politics. Almost half the public (47%) is either "very" (19%) or "somewhat" (28%) concerned, while 52% are "not very" (24%) or not at all (28%) concerned.

A majority (54%) describe Clinton's politics as moderate, between liberal and conservative. However, partisanship also colors how Americans describe Clinton's politics. A large majority of Republicans (62%) describe Clinton as a liberal. Only 24% of Democrats and 33% of Independents describe Clinton as a liberal. Most Democrats (67%) and Independents (60%) describe her as a moderate.

  • Only 28% rate Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the President's brother, favorably, while twice that number (56%) rate him negatively in the Time poll.


Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between July 13 and July 17, 2006 among a national random sample of 1,003 adults, age 18 and older throughout America. The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of adult Americans.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:

    32% Democrat
    24% Republican
    30% Independent

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.

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