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August 11, 2006
Israel - Hezbollah Conflict Has Little Impact on President's Approval
By Mark Schulman
Conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has had little impact on President Bush’s still sagging 35% approval rating, with 58% disapproving, according to the latest Time Poll.
The Time national poll, conducted August 9 -10, also finds little change in the President’s marks in other areas:
- About 2 in 3 Americans (64%) disapprove of his handling of the situation in Iraq, unchanged from June, while only 30% now approve;
- Only 1 in 3 (33%) approve of his handling of the economy, with 62% disapproving;
- Bush’s approval score on handling terrorism, his strong suit in the 2004 election, is now 43%, down 3 points since last month, with 52% disapproving.
No Change after Terrorist Plot Announcement
The Thursday morning announcement of the plot to down
airlines in mid-ocean had no impact on the President’s ratings. Interviews
conducted Thursday night, after the announcement of the plot, found little or
no change in the President’s ratings, even on terrorism. For example:
- Pre-announcement of the terrorist plot, 43% of Americans approved on Bush’s handling of terrorism, while post-announcement 42% approved.
Low Marks for Handling Israel - Hezbollah Conflict
The U.S. response to the Israeli - Hezbollah has done
nothing to buoy the President’s approval rating: 48% disapprove of his handling
of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, while only 38% approve of his
actions there.
Few Americans (6%) blame Israel alone for the hostilities. However,
- 46% blame both Israel and Hezbollah "equally" for the conflict, with another 34% saying Hezbollah is mainly to blame.
Public Wants U.S. Neutral in Israel - Hezbollah Conflict
The Bush administration’s mainly pro-Israel stance in the
conflict may be a bit out of step with the public. Only 1 in 4 Americans (25%)
believe that the U.S. should side with Israel in this conflict, while 67% say
American should stay neutral. A scant 1% believe the U.S. should side with
Hezbollah.
- Only 1 in 3 white evangelicals (34%) would side with Israel.
A majority of Americans, 56% believe that U.S. policies in the Middle East are hurting the war on terrorism, while only 29% believe they are helping against terrorism.
Armageddon?
More than 1 in 4 Americans (28%) believe that the Israel -
Hezbollah conflict may signal the coming of Armageddon, or the "end of times." Another
10% say they are not sure. Among white evangelicals, 44% say that the Middle
East clash may be a sign of Armageddon.
Government Gets Low Marks for Katrina Rebuilding
In a one-year follow-up to the devastation wrought by
Hurricane Katrina, only 35% approve of the job Bush has done to help the
recovery effort. But almost all government levels and agencies get low marks.
Only 32% approve of the job the U.S. Congress has done to aid the recovery effort,
while only 35% approve the job that state and local officials have done.
Federal agencies such as FEMA get the lowest approval scores, at 28%.
- People in the Gulf Coast states directly affected by Katrina give the President and others slightly higher marks. For example, 48% of Gulf state residents approve of the President's job in helping to rebuild. Of course, the Gulf states were pro-Bush "red states" in the 2004 election.
Few Americans have a "great deal" of confidence in the ability of the President or any other government officials to handle a major disaster.
- Only 17% have a great deal of confidence in Bush’s ability to handle a major disaster, while 32% have some confidence. Almost half of Americans (48%) have not much (20%) or no (29%) confidence.
- Congress fares a little better, with 10% having a great deal of confidence and 47% having some confidence in its ability to handle a major disaster.
- State and local officials also fare a bit better than Bush, with 13% having a great deal of confidence and 46% having some confidence in their ability to handle a natural disaster.
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was
conducted by telephone between August 9 - 10, 2006 among a
national random sample of 1,003 adults, age 18 and older throughout America.
The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of adult
Americans.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage
points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to
other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording
error, and respondent error.
The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:
30% Democrat
26% Republican
29% Independent
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and
conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be
found in the related link below.
Related Link
