Kerry Slips Slightly as Republicans Head to New York

August 28, 2004

Presidential choice question based on likely voters. All other results, unless noted, based on registered voters. Telephone Interviewing was conducted August 24-26, 2004.

Kerry Slips Slightly as Republicans Head to New York

By Mark Schulman

As George Bush heads into next week's Republican nominating convention, the Time Poll finds signs of Kerry slippage. Two weeks of Kerry playing defense on Swift Boats and what the Republicans have tagged Kerry's "flip-flop" position on the Iraq war resolution appear to have taken a toll.

Bush is now in a dead heat in the three-way race with Kerry among likely voters, 46% Bush, 44% Kerry, with Nader at 5%. Just after the Democratic convention, Bush trailed Kerry among likely voters, 48% - 43%, with Nader at 4%. In the two-way race, Bush and Kerry are also neck-and-neck among likely voters, 46% Bush, 46% Kerry.

Vote in the 2004 Election
	Aug. 24-26		Aug. 3-5
	Reg. Voters	Likely Voters	Reg. Voters	Likely Voters
Bush	46%	46%	41%	43%
Kerry	42%	44%	45%	48%
Nader	6%	5%	6%	4%
Don't know	5%	3%	4%	3%

One key indicator of Kerry's fortunes, his favorability rating, has dropped from 53% favorable - 29% unfavorable in early August to 44% favorable - 33% unfavorable today. More importantly, the Time Poll finds some fraying of Kerry's support at the edges. For example, coming out of the Boston Democratic Convention, Kerry's own supporters gave him a 91% favorability rating. That's dropped to 84% now.

The Poll finds other worrisome signs for Kerry as well:

Kerry lost his edge over Bush on who voters trust to manage the economy - previously a bedrock Kerry lead. Kerry went from a 51% - 42% lead over Bush in early August to a 46% Kerry - 43% Bush near tie today.

Handling the Iraq situation went from a 44% Kerry - 46% Bush tie to a Bush lead, 41% Kerry - 49% Bush. This drop may have been caused when Kerry declared recently that he would vote "yes" again for Bush's resolution authorizing war, even though no weapons of mass destruction were found.

Kerry lost ground to Bush on who voters trust to be commander-in-chief. Kerry and Bush tied in early August, 47% for Kerry - 45% for Bush. Bush has now opened a lead here, 42% Kerry - 50% Bush.

Bush has lengthened his lead over Kerry in providing strong leadership in difficult times. Bush now leads 52% - 41% for Kerry. Bush's lead in early August was 48% - 43%.

Independents split almost evenly now between Kerry (43%) and Bush (42%). Three weeks ago, Kerry led Bush among independents 43% - 36%.

Taking Bush's Pre-Convention Measure
Bush faces his own challenges heading into New York. Two numbers loom menacing for the incumbent:

His job approval continues to hover around 50% -- in the danger zone for incumbents seeking re-election. It's now 51% approve - 45% disapprove, little changed from three weeks ago.

Almost half of voters (49%) still say that it's time for someone else to be president, again, just slightly improved from early August's 54% saying it's time for someone else.

Other findings are also troubling for Bush:

Voters see Bush as more of a 'divider' (50%) than a 'uniter' (39%).

Only 38% say Bush's tax policies have been fair to the average taxpayer, while 53% say that his tax policies have "favored the wealthy over everyone else."

Bush also appears vulnerable among swing voters, that is, voters who are either undecided in their choice or who say they might switch from the candidate they currently favor. Only 33% of swing voters think Bush deserves to be re-elected, while 50% want "someone new."

The poll finds some strengthening of support for the Iraq war. Half of voters now say that the war in Iraq was right (50% right - 43% wrong), up from 47% right - 47% wrong.

Promises Kept?
What's the voters' verdict on Bush's near four years in office? The Time Poll asked voters to evaluate how well the Bush Presidency lived up to its promise on taking office. The poll finds that this polarized electorate has two very opposite verdicts, depending upon whether you're for Bush or against him.

Is Bush more conservative than voters expected? Two in three voters (63%) say that what they heard from Bush in 2000 is what they got during his term. Another 19% say Bush is more conservative than they expected, while 9% say he is more moderate.

Overall, has Bush kept his campaign promises of four years ago? Less than half the voters (45%) believe Bush has kept his promises, 36% say he has not, with 18% undecided. However, in an example of the two different worlds that voters inhabit, 83% of Bush supporters say Bush has kept his promises, compared to only 10% of Kerry supporters. In only one area, "strengthening the military" do a large majority of voters, 63% - 30%, credit Bush with keeping his promise.

The partisan divide runs deep when voters evaluate Bush's other pledges. Voters divide evenly on whether Bush has been "compassionate and caring," with 45% agreeing and 48% disagreeing. Bush supporters overwhelming agree that Bush has been caring, 86% - 7%. Kerry supporters take the polar opposite view, with 89% denying that Bush has been caring, and only 8% agreeing. Swing voters disagree, 49% - 38%.

Majorities or near majorities of voters think Bush has fallen short in fulfilling the following pledges:

Ensuring the survival of social security: 59% say that Bush has made no real progress on social security, while only 27% believe that he has.

Strengthening Medicare and prescription drug coverage: 56% say Bush has made no real progress here, with only 31% saying that he has.

Strengthening ties with our allies: 59% say no real progress, while 33% say he has made progress.

"No child left behind:" 46% say Bush has made no real progress in fulfilling this pledge, while 44% say that he has made progress.

Again, the partisan divide in each of these areas is enormous. For example, only 18% of Kerry supporters say Bush has made progress strengthening our education system with his "no child left behind" pledge, compared to 72% of Bush supporters.

Swing voters give Bush little credit in fulfilling most campaign pledges. For example, only 18% say Bush made real progress in strengthening the Social Security system. In fact, majorities of swing voters deny Bush has made real progress in any of the promises tested, with the exception of strengthening the military.

Has the Bush Administration Made Real Progress?
% "has made real progress"	Registered Voters	Bush Supporters	Kerry Supporters	Swing Voters
Strengthening our education system so no child is left behind	44%	72%	18%	41%
Strengthening Medicare and prescription drug coverage for seniors	31%	54%	10%	27%
Strengthening our ties with allies around the world	33%	60%	6%	22%
Strengthening the US Military	63%	93%	34%	63%
Making sure the Social Security System will be sound for years to come	27%	48%	7%	18%

Bush's Personality Profile
In 2000 Bush's major strengths over Gore were in the character issues - being honest and trustworthy, likeable, and being a strong leader. Voters today see many of these same strengths.

Most notable among Bush's attributes is "sticking to his positions, even if they are politically unpopular," with 78% of voters agreeing. Even 62% of Kerry supporters agree that Bush sticks to his positions. However, 60% of voters also say there are times when Bush "should have changed" his positions.

Other Bush strengths include:

About 2 in 3 (65%) say Bush is likeable.

A majority of voters also find Bush honest and trustworthy (54%) and understanding the issues (54%-41%).

Voters split on whether Bush cares about people like themselves. Almost 1 in 2 say he does (50%), while 45% say he doesn't care.

Again, Bush and Kerry supporters evaluate the candidates through their partisan lenses. For most Bush supporters, Bush is likeable, trustworthy, and understanding of the issues. For Kerry supporters, Bush is not likeable, not trustworthy, and not understanding the issues. For example, 91% of Bush supporters say Bush understands the issues, compared to only 14% of Kerry supporters.

Do Each of the Following Accurately Describe George Bush?
% "accurately describes Bush"	Registered Voters	Bush Supporters	Kerry Supporters	Swing Voters
Honest and Trustworthy	54%	96%	13%	54%
Cares about people like you	50%	92%	9%	43%
Understands the issues	54%	91%	14%	50%
Is likeable	65%	97%	32%	69%
Has good judgement	50%	94%	8%	45%
Sticks to his positions, even if unpopular	78%	95%	62%	77%

Bush's Cabinet
Bush's cabinet gets a 50% favorable - 36% unfavorable rating. Evaluations of individual cabinet members vary widely. For example, Colin Powell gets a standout 74% favorable rating, while Condi Rice gets a 2 to 1 favorable rating (52% - 25%). Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge has a 44% favorable - 25% unfavorable score. However, Donald Rumsfeld's rating is split evenly, 39% favorable - 37% unfavorable. Voters are split on whether Bush should replace Rumsfeld, with 49% saying he should be replaced, and 48% saying he should stay.

Approve or Disapprove of the Job the Bush Cabinet Has Done?
	Approve	Disapprove	Don't Know
Entire Bush Cabinet/ Top Advisors	50%	36%	14%
Secretary of State Colin Powell	74%	12%	14%
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld	39%	37%	23%
National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice	52%	25%	23%
Dept. of Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge	44%	25%	30%

Swift Boat Attack Ads
A whopping 77% have seen or heard about the ads attacking Kerry's Vietnam military service record. A majority (56%) who saw the ads say it's just politics as usual. However, the ads sowed at least some doubt about Kerry's Vietnam war record in the minds of about 1 in 3 voters (35%) who saw the ads and say there's "some truth" to the accusations.

What impact did the ads have? Most voters who saw the ads say they had no impact (72%) on their vote intentions. About equal numbers say the ads made them more anti-Kerry (13%) or more pro-Kerry (14%).

The ads did have some negative impact against Kerry among swing voters. Almost 1 in 4 swing voters (25%) who saw the ads say that there's some truth to the accusations.

The bigger question, looking at the overall picture, is whether these ads diverted Kerry's attention from other campaign issues, particularly the economy. Kerry's previous edge over Bush in handling the economy disappeared in the past few weeks.

"First Ladies" Poll
Laura Bush lengthened her favorability lead over Teresa Heinz Kerry in the past few weeks. Voters give Laura Bush a 53% favorable - 7% unfavorable rating, about the same as three weeks ago. Teresa Heinz Kerry now has equal numbers of favorable (25%) and unfavorable (25%) ratings. Her unfavorable ratings are up from 12% three weeks ago, while her favorables are up just slightly, from 20%. Less than 1 in 5 voters say that the President's spouse is an important factor in their vote.

The Big Apple: New York City
One of the few non-partisan issues in the Time Poll is that New York City, site of this week's Republican convention, gets positive scores from a large majority of adults. When the Poll asked all adults, voters and non-voters, to evaluate New York City, 69% give the Big Apple a positive score (34% very positive - 35% somewhat positive) while only 17% give the city a negative score.

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone August 24-26, 2004 among a random sample of 1,207 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1,026 reported registered voters and 835 likely voters. The margin of error for registered and likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing.

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