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January 24, 2007
Clinton, Giuliani and McCain--Early Front Runners in 2008 Presidential Race
By Tara Regan
Hillary Rodham Clinton is not only the Democratic front-runner for the 2008 nomination, but is also considered highly electable by a large majority of registered voters. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain lead the list of nominees, with both also seen as likely to win the 2008 presidential election at this early stage, according to a new Time Poll, conducted January 22-23 among registered voters.
- Among those familiar with the candidate, almost 2-in-3 registered voters (63%) say that Clinton is "very" or "somewhat" likely to win the 2008 Presidential election if she wins her party's nomination. She is closely followed by Republicans Rudy Giuliani (62%) and John McCain (59%) and fellow Democrat Barack Obama (57%).
- Among Democrats or Democratic-leaning Independents, Clinton leads among her party's contenders for the nomination, with 40%. Barack Obama, who is still not well known by voters, is a distant second at 21% followed by John Edwards (11%).
- Among Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents, McCain holds a narrow lead (30%) over Rudy Giuliani close behind (26%) for their party's nomination.
Trial Heats: Clinton vs. McCain -- Dead Heat
In the poll's trial heats, Republican John McCain ties with Clinton, 47% - 47% but tops Obama and Edwards each by 7 points, 49% - 42%.
Much of the McCain margin between Obama and Edwards comes from diminished support among Democrats for these candidates compared to Clinton.
- Democrats favor Hillary Clinton over John McCain with a greater margin, 84% - 12% than Obama vs. McCain (73% - 19%) and Edwards over McCain (77% vs. 16%).
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Q13.? How likely is it that (CANDIDATE) would win to 2008 Presidential Election: |
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Base: Very/Somewhat Likely/Have Heard of Candidate - Base sizes vary |
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Very/Somewhat Likely (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Independent (%) |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
63 |
47 |
78 |
63 |
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Rudy Giuliani |
62 |
77 |
49 |
62 |
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John McCain |
59 |
73 |
41 |
63 |
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Barack Obama |
57 |
45 |
67 |
60 |
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John Edwards |
49 |
31 |
63 |
53 |
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Al Gore |
41 |
18 |
61 |
41 |
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John Kerry |
32 |
16 |
51 |
27 |
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Mitt Romney |
29 |
41 |
18 |
25 |
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Newt Gingrich |
23 |
38 |
13 |
17 |
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George Pataki |
18 |
21 |
18 |
17 |
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Mike Huckabee |
18 |
23 |
13 |
18 |
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Chuck Hagel |
16 |
14 |
17 |
20 |
Candidate Favorability: Giuliani Scores High Marks; Obama and McCain
Rudy Giuliani enjoys the highest favorability ratings among potential presidential
candidates with 82% of voters who are aware of him having a "very" or "somewhat" favorable impression of him.
Giuliani's favorability spans partisanship with more than 7-in-10 Democrats (71%) and Independents (83%) having
a favorable impression.
- John McCain and Barack Obama come in second with 70% of those aware of each candidate saying they have a "favorable" impression of each. Both candidates benefit from moderate favorability among their opposing party and high favorability from among Independents.
- John Edwards (62%) Hillary Clinton (58%) and Al Gore (54%) round out the candidates who have at least half saying they have a favorable impression of them.
Clinton Best-Known Candidate, with Obama Still Fuzzy in Voters' Minds
A very large majority (94%) say that they know either "a great deal" or "some" about
Hillary Clinton. Al Gore comes in second at 87%, followed by John Kerry (79%).
- Almost 3-in-4 (73%) say they know "a great deal" or "some" about Rudy Giuliani and slightly less about John McCain (66%) and John Edwards (61%)
- Barack Obama is still a bit of an unknown with 51% saying they know "a great deal" or "some" about him. About one-quarter each say they either "don't know much" about him (26%) or "never heard of him" (22%).
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Q10.? How much do you know about the following candidates? |
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Base: Know a great deal/Some |
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Know a great deal/Some (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Independent (%) |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
94 |
92 |
94 |
95 |
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Al Gore |
87 |
87 |
85 |
90 |
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John Kerry |
79 |
77 |
80 |
82 |
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Rudy Giuliani |
73 |
82 |
67 |
78 |
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John McCain |
66 |
79 |
54 |
70 |
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John Edwards |
61 |
57 |
62 |
68 |
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Newt Gingrich |
61 |
68 |
51 |
69 |
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Barack Obama |
51 |
45 |
53 |
62 |
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George Pataki |
26 |
27 |
21 |
31 |
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Mitt Romney |
17 |
20 |
9 |
26 |
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Chuck Hagel |
9 |
9 |
6 |
12 |
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Mike Huckabee |
6 |
8 |
4 |
7 |
Republican Candidates: Giuliani Scores Most Favorable
Giuliani receives the most favorable scores among all contenders, with 82% giving him a
very/somewhat favorable rating among voters aware of him, with only 14% giving him an unfavorable rating.
Overall, his net favorability - favorables minus unfavorables - is +68.
- Among other Republicans, McCain gets a +45 net favorable score among those aware of him, while Romney gets a +19 net score.
- Newt Gingrich is the only Republican to get a negative favorability net score, -11.
Democratic Candidates: Hillary Polarizes; Obama Highly Favorable, but Not Well-Known
While 58% of voters familiar with Hillary Clinton rate her positively, 41% give her
negative marks, for a net favorability score of +17.
- Clinton's favorability is very much split along party lines with 75% of Republicans finding her unfavorable compared to 11% Democrats and 41% Independents.
By contrast, Obama gets a +47 favorability score among those aware of him at this early stage. Again, he still suffers from low awareness. The issue for Obama is whether his high scores hold when he further introduces himself to the public.
Among other candidates, John Edwards gets a +31 net favorable score. However, his 2004 running mate, John Kerry, has a negative -4.
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Q11.? How favorable an impression do you have of: |
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Base: Registered Voters/Have Heard of - Base sizes vary |
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Very/Somewhat Favorable (%) |
Very/Somewhat Unfavorable (%) |
?Favorable minus Unfavorable |
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Rudy Giuliani |
82 |
14 |
+68 |
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Barack Obama |
70 |
23 |
+47 |
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John McCain |
70 |
25 |
+45 |
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John Edwards |
62 |
31 |
+31 |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
58 |
41 |
+17 |
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Al Gore |
54 |
43 |
+11 |
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Mitt Romney |
48 |
29 |
+19 |
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John Kerry |
46 |
50 |
-4 |
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George Pataki |
45 |
27 |
+18 |
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Newt Gingrich |
41 |
52 |
-11 |
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Chuck Hagel |
38 |
26 |
+12 |
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Mike Huckabee |
33 |
24 |
+9 |
Candidate Support: Giuliani, Clinton, McCain, and Obama Tops
Rudy Giuliani tops the list of candidates that registered voters familiar with the
candidate say they will either "definitely" or "probably" support (56%). This is closely followed by Hillary
Clinton (51% "definitely" or "probably" support), John McCain (50%) and Barack Obama (50%).
- Support is less for candidates John Edwards (44% "definitely" or "probably" support), Al Gore (42%) and John Kerry (34%).
- Among Republicans right now it is a fairly tight 2-man race between Giuliani (77% who are familiar with him "definitely" or "probably" support) and McCain (73%). Whereas among Democrats Clinton holds a greater margin for support at 83% over Obama (73%), Gore (69%) and Edwards (64%).
- The race appears to be the tightest among Independent voters. Although among those who are familiar, Giuliani has the most support (57% "definitely" or "probably" will support), Obama (54%), Clinton (53%), McCain (52%) and Edwards (51%) are very close behind.
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Q12.? If the election were being held today, would support: |
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Base: Definitely/Probably vote for/Have heard of candidate - Base sizes vary |
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Definitely/Probably Support (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Independent (%) |
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Rudy Giuliani |
56 |
77 |
37 |
57 |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
51 |
14 |
83 |
53 |
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Barack Obama |
50 |
22 |
73 |
54 |
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John McCain |
50 |
73 |
26 |
52 |
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John Edwards |
44 |
16 |
64 |
51 |
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Al Gore |
42 |
10 |
69 |
46 |
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John Kerry |
34 |
7 |
59 |
35 |
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Mitt Romney |
29 |
43 |
17 |
23 |
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Newt Gingrich |
27 |
49 |
11 |
21 |
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Mike Huckabee |
23 |
33 |
19 |
19 |
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George Pataki |
22 |
31 |
13 |
18 |
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Chuck Hagel |
17 |
20 |
18 |
14 |
Republican Nominations: Frontrunners McCain and Giuliani
Among Republican voters right now, John McCain (30%) and Rudy Giuliani (26%) are the
early front-runners for the Republican nomination among voters aware of each candidate.
- Republican-leaning Independents support John McCain over Giuliani by a greater margin (41% McCain vs. 20% Giuliani).
- Although the former New York City Mayor Giuliani has greater support in the Northeast (40% Giuliani vs. 28% McCain), McCain is favored in the rest of the country.
- When asked who they would choose for the Republican nomination if it was among McCain, Giuliani or Mitt Romney, the margin between McCain and Giuliani narrowed to just 3 points (43% McCain vs. 40% Giuliani vs. 8% Romney).
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Q6. If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, |
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which candidate would you most likely vote for? |
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Base: Republican/Lean Republican |
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Total (%) |
Northeast (%) |
Mid-West (%) |
South (%) |
West (%) |
Male (%) |
Female (%) |
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John McCain |
30 |
28 |
30 |
32 |
29 |
32 |
29 |
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Rudy Giuliani |
26 |
40 |
22 |
26 |
19 |
23 |
19 |
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Newt Gingrich |
14 |
9 |
12 |
16 |
19 |
19 |
9 |
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Mitt Romney |
5 |
9 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
4 |
5 |
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Sam Brownback |
3 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
5 |
3 |
2 |
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George Pataki |
2 |
4 |
2 |
* |
2 |
2 |
1 |
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Tom Tancredo |
1 |
-- |
-- |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
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Chuck Hagel |
1 |
1 |
5 |
* |
-- |
1 |
2 |
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Mike Huckabee |
1 |
-- |
3 |
2 |
-- |
1 |
2 |
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Jim Gilmore |
1 |
-- |
-- |
2 |
-- |
1 |
-- |
Democratic Nominations: Hillary Leading Pack
Among Democratic voters, Hillary Clinton is the clear front runner for the Party's
nomination with 40% likely to vote for her followed by Barack Obama (21%) and John Edwards (11%).
- Clinton holds a larger margin over Obama in both the Northeast (49% Clinton vs. 11% Obama) and West (45% Clinton vs. 14% Obama), but a more narrow one in the Midwest (33% Clinton vs. 32% Obama) and the South (38% Clinton vs. 22% Obama)
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Q8. If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, |
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which candidate would you be most likely to vote for? |
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Base: Democrat/Lean Democrat |
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Total (%) |
Northeast (%) |
Mid-West (%) |
South (%) |
West (%) |
Male (%) |
Female (%) |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
40 |
49 |
33 |
38 |
45 |
31 |
45 |
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Barack Obama |
21 |
11 |
32 |
22 |
14 |
22 |
20 |
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John Edwards |
11 |
7 |
11 |
14 |
8 |
14 |
9 |
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Al Gore |
9 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
13 |
9 |
10 |
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John Kerry |
4 |
7 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
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Bill Richardson |
4 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
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