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February 27, 2007
Giuliani and Clinton Remain Early Front Runners in 2008 Presidential Race-Obama Gains/McCain Loses Ground
By Mark Schulman and Tara Regan
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has surged past John McCain for the Republican nomination among registered Republicans in the most recent Time Poll. Giuliani now has a 14 point lead over McCain, who started the Republican primary season as the frontrunner, erasing the 4 point lead McCain had in the January Time Poll.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama among registered Democrats narrowed to 12 points, 36% - 24%, down from 19 points in January. John Edwards held steady at 11%, same as in January. Al Gore, an undeclared candidate, is up 4 percentage points to 13%. The other Democratic candidates hardly register in the polls so far.
Northeast Heavily Favors Giuliani over McCain
The core of Giuliani's strength is in the Northeast, where he has a 2-to-1 margin over McCain, 50% - 23%. The Northeast is an area where Republicans have struggled in recent elections. However, Giuliani leads in every other region as well, including the Midwest and South. The candidates virtually tied in West. Mitt Romney's support at this point is just 7%.
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Q6. If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, |
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which candidate would you most likely vote for? |
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Base: Registered Republican/Lean Republican |
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Total (%) |
Northeast (%) |
Mid-West (%) |
South (%) |
West (%) |
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Rudy Giuliani |
38 |
50 |
34 |
39 |
32 |
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John McCain |
24 |
23 |
21 |
24 |
27 |
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Newt Gingrich |
12 |
8 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
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Mitt Romney |
7 |
10 |
4 |
3 |
11 |
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Sam Brownback |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
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Tom Tancredo |
1 |
-- |
2 |
1 |
1 |
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Chuck Hagel |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
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Mike Huckabee |
1 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
-- |
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Jim Gilmore |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
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When asked who Republicans would choose for the nomination if it was among just McCain, Giuliani or Mitt Romney, the margin between Giuliani and McCain increases to 19 points (49% Giuliani vs. 30% McCain vs. 12% Romney).
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Q7. If your choices for the Republican nomination were just McCain, Romney and Giuliani, |
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which would you vote for? |
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Base: Republican/Lean Republican |
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Total (%) |
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Rudy Giuliani |
49 |
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John McCain |
30 |
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Mitt Romney |
12 |
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Trial Heats: Giuliani in Virtual Tie with Hillary Clinton, Edges out Obama
Giuliani would face a tight race against both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Against Clinton, Giuliani is up just 3 points, 47% - 44%. Giuliani has a 5 point lead over Obama, 47% - 42%. Clinton leads Giuliani only among women (48% - 42%) and Blacks (86% - 10%).
The trial heats are even tighter against McCain. Clinton and McCain are in a dead-heat, (46%-45%), while Obama edges out McCain, 46% - 42%.
Potential Giuliani Vulnerabilities Still Undercover
Even as Giuliani surges, the poll finds a number of vulnerabilities that Giuliani may face up the road as he swings from New York City's 9.11 Mayor to the candidate trying to capture his party's nomination. Many voters do not know much about Giuliani's background and past issue stances, which will likely be revealed as the campaign rolls on. The knowledge gaps include:
- Over half of voters (55%) say that they are less likely to favor a candidate who supports President Bush's position on the Iraq war. However, a majority of voters say incorrectly that this either does not describe Giuliani's position (19%) or say that they don't know about his position (36%).
- More than 1 in 3 voters (35%) and almost half (48%) of "born-again" white Christians say that they would be less likely to vote for a candidate who was married three times. A majority of voters (56%) and about the same number of "born agains" (54%) incorrectly say that this either does not describe Giuliani or don't know.
- Almost 7 in 10 voters (68%) do not know anything about Giuliani's position on gun control (47%) or think he opposes gun control (21%). However, 38% of Republicans and 30% of voters overall say they are less likely to support a candidate favoring gun control.
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Q16a. Please tell me if this feature makes you more/less likely to support a candidate |
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Q16b. Does this describe Rudy Giuliani, or not? |
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Base: Registered Voters/Total Asked |
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Less Likely Support (%) |
Doesn't Describe Giuliani/Don't know (%) |
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Supports Bush's Position on Iraq War |
55 |
55 |
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Agrees with Bush on most issues |
53 |
58 |
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Changed position and now opposes gay marriage and abortion |
44 |
79 |
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Opposes abortion |
38 |
77 |
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Been Married 3 Times |
35 |
56 |
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Favors gun control |
30 |
68 |
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Favors lifting gov't restrictions on stem cell research |
25 |
75 |
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Strong Believer in Family Values |
6 |
58 |
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Has foreign policy/national security experience |
2 |
66 |
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Maybe a Woman President but Not Necessarily an Inexperienced One
Most voters say that it makes no difference whether a candidate is African American (84% no difference) or a woman (70% no difference) in terms of supporting their candidacy:
- About one-in-ten (11%) say they would be more likely to support a candidate who is African American with another 5% saying they would be less likely to support.
- A slightly larger number (16%) say they would more likely to support a woman candidate, although also more (13%) would be less likely to support a woman presidential candidate.
The public is a bit divided however, on whether religious affiliation and experience in public service affect candidacy support.
- Although almost 2-in-3 (63%) say it makes no difference if a candidate is a Mormon or member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, almost one-third (31%) say they would be less likely to support such a candidate. Only 5% would be more likely to support a Mormon candidate. Romney is a Mormon.
- A little less than half (46%) say it makes no difference if a candidate has only served in a public office a few years - a charge leveled against Obama. However, more than one-third (36%) would be less likely to support a candidate with little public service experience. About 17% would be more likely to support such a candidate.
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Q16a. Please tell me if this feature makes you more/less likely to support a candidate |
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Base: Registered Voters/Total Asked |
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More Likely Support (%) |
Less Likely Support (%) |
No Difference (%) |
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Has Served in Public Office Only a Few Years |
17 |
36 |
46 |
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Is a Woman |
16 |
13 |
70 |
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Is an African American |
11 |
5 |
84 |
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Is a Member of the Church of Latter- Day Saints, or Mormons |
5 |
31 |
63 |
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Clinton's Lead Shrinking on Democratic Side
Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama among registered Democrats narrowed to 12 points, 36% - 24%, down from a 19 point lead in January. Clinton's lead is mainly in the Northeast (42% - 20%) and South (42% - 19%) and among women (40 - 24%). Blacks split about evenly between Clinton and Obama.
- John Edwards held steady at 11%, same as in January. Al Gore, an undeclared candidate, is up 4 percentage points to 13%, perhaps a post-Academy Award spurt.
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Q8. If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, |
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which candidate would you be most likely to vote for? |
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Base: Registered Democrat/Lean Democrat |
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Total (%) |
Northeast (%) |
Mid-West (%) |
South (%) |
West (%) |
Male (%) |
Female (%) |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
36 |
42 |
28 |
42 |
29 |
31 |
40 |
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Barack Obama |
24 |
20 |
31 |
19 |
29 |
24 |
24 |
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Al Gore |
13 |
15 |
15 |
11 |
13 |
15 |
12 |
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John Edwards |
11 |
2 |
15 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
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Bill Richardson |
3 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
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Joe Biden |
2 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
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Al Sharpton |
1 |
-- |
-- |
2 |
-- |
1 |
* |
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Dennis Kucinich |
1 |
2 |
1 |
-- |
3 |
2 |
1 |
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Chris Dodd |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Clinton Best-Known Candidate, with Obama Becoming More Visible
A very large majority (95%) say that they know either "a great deal" or "some" about Hillary Clinton. Al Gore comes in second at 89%, followed by Rudy Giuliani (80%) and John McCain (77%).
- About 2-in-3 say they know "a great deal" or "some" about John Edwards (68%), Newt Gingrich (66%) and Barack Obama (65%).
- Barack Obama is becoming more visible to voters as seen in the +14 increase in those who say they know "a great deal" or "some" about him since late January (51% in late Jan. vs. 65% in late Feb.)
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Q11.? How much do you know about the following candidates? |
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Base: Know a great deal/Some |
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Know a great deal/Some (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Independent (%) |
Change in Knowledge Since Jan. (%) |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
95 |
96 |
95 |
95 |
+1 |
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Al Gore |
89 |
89 |
91 |
90 |
+2 |
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Rudy Giuliani |
80 |
87 |
74 |
83 |
+7 |
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John McCain |
77 |
87 |
69 |
80 |
+11 |
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John Edwards |
68 |
65 |
69 |
74 |
+7 |
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Newt Gingrich |
66 |
74 |
59 |
69 |
+5 |
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Barack Obama |
65 |
60 |
71 |
64 |
+14 |
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Joe Biden |
33 |
35 |
32 |
36 |
NA |
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Mitt Romney |
27 |
32 |
21 |
34 |
+10 |
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Chris Dodd |
15 |
14 |
13 |
19 |
NA |
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Chuck Hagel |
11 |
14 |
8 |
13 |
+2 |
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Sam Brownback |
9 |
10 |
8 |
9 |
NA |
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Mike Huckabee |
8 |
10 |
7 |
10 |
+2 |
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Candidate Favorability: Giuliani Scores High Marks, Obama Close Second
Rudy Giuliani enjoys the highest favorability ratings among potential presidential candidates with 75% of voters who are aware of him having a "very" or "somewhat" favorable impression of him. Barack Obama is a close second with 73% of those aware of him saying they have a "favorable" impression of him. John McCain comes in third at 66%.
- John Edwards (62%), Al Gore (60%) and Hillary Clinton (56%) round out the candidates who have at least half saying they have a favorable impression of them.
- Although Giuliani receives the most favorable scores among all contenders, his "unfavorable" ratings have increased from 14% in late Jan. to 22% in late Feb. As a result his net favorability has decreased from +68 in late Jan. to +53 today.
- Among other Republicans, McCain gets a +38 net favorable score among those aware of him (a decrease from +45 in late Jan.), while Romney gets a +17 net score (a decrease from +19 in late Jan.)
- Newt Gingrich and Sam Brownback are the only Republicans to get a negative net favorability score, -8 and -9 respectively.
Democratic Candidates: Hillary Polarizes; Obama Highly Favorable, and Improving with Greater Visibility
While 56% of voters familiar with Hillary Clinton rate her positively, 43% give her negative marks, for a net favorability score of +13, down 4 points from late January.
- By contrast, Obama gets a +51 favorability score among those aware of him, a 4 point increase since late January. His net favorability score is second only to Rudy Giuliani, who is a much more well-known candidate. At this early stage voters seem to be gaining a slightly more favorable impression of Obama as they learn more about him.
- Al Gore's net favorability score has seen an increase from +11 in late January to +21 today. Perhaps Gore's recent public appearances supporting his global warming documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth" have increased his favorability with voters.
Among other candidates, John Edwards gets a +30 net favorable score and Joe Biden receives a +4 net favorable score.
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Q12.? How favorable an impression do you have of: |
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Base: Registered Voters/Have Heard of ? Base sizes vary |
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Very/Somewhat Favorable (%) |
Very/Somewhat Unfavorable (%) |
?Favorable minus Unfavorable |
Change in Net Favorable Score Since Jan. |
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Rudy Giuliani |
75 |
22 |
+53 |
-15 |
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Barack Obama |
73 |
22 |
+51 |
+4 |
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John McCain |
66 |
28 |
+38 |
-7 |
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John Edwards |
62 |
32 |
+30 |
-1 |
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Al Gore |
60 |
39 |
+21 |
+10 |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
56 |
43 |
+13 |
-4 |
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Mitt Romney |
48 |
31 |
+17 |
-2 |
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Joe Biden |
44 |
40 |
+4 |
NA |
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Newt Gingrich |
43 |
51 |
-8 |
+3 |
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Chuck Hagel |
37 |
31 |
+6 |
0 |
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Chris Dodd |
34 |
33 |
+1 |
NA |
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Mike Huckabee |
31 |
31 |
0 |
0 |
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Sam Brownback |
29 |
38 |
-9 |
NA |
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Clinton, Giuliani, Obama, McCain All Seen as Likely Winners
The top candidates in each party are all seen as likely potential winners among voters aware of each. About half of Republicans aware of Clinton and 65% of Independents believe she could win. Almost half of Democrats (45%) and 62% of Independents believe Giuliani can win.
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Q14.? How likely is it that (CANDIDATE) would win to 2008 Presidential Election: |
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Base: Very/Somewhat Likely/Have Heard of Candidate ? Base sizes vary |
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Very/Somewhat Likely (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Independent (%) |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
65 |
51 |
78 |
65 |
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Rudy Giuliani |
62 |
80 |
45 |
62 |
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Barack Obama |
60 |
51 |
71 |
61 |
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John McCain |
59 |
75 |
46 |
57 |
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John Edwards |
48 |
30 |
66 |
50 |
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Al Gore |
43 |
26 |
64 |
39 |
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Mitt Romney |
26 |
41 |
9 |
26 |
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Newt Gingrich |
22 |
37 |
8 |
19 |
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Joe Biden |
20 |
12 |
27 |
25 |
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Chris Dodd |
13 |
8 |
16 |
14 |
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Chuck Hagel |
13 |
15 |
13 |
11 |
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Mike Huckabee |
12 |
17 |
3 |
13 |
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Sam Brownback |
10 |
16 |
5 |
6 |
Most Trust Congress Over President Bush to Make Policy
About two-thirds of voters say that they trust Congress (66%) more than President Bush (23%) to make policy for our country.
- Democrats and Independents are more likely to say they trust Congress (88% and 70% respectively) over Bush (5% and 19%).
- Republicans are more likely to trust President Bush (48%) over Congress (39%).
The Best at Speed Dating? Rudy
Rudy Giuliani is the presidential candidate that most voters say would:
- Do the best at a speed dating event (16% say Giuliani, with Obama coming in second at 13% and Clinton in third at 12%);
- Be the best boss to work for (18% say Giuliani with Obama coming in second at 16% and Clinton in third at 14%).
However, most voters say that Hillary Clinton (19%) would be the best teammate on the TV show The Apprentice with Giuliani in second at 14% and Obama in third at 11%.
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between February 23-26, 2007 among a national random sample of 1,144 registered voters, age 18 and older throughout America. The poll used a slightly reduced sample of 1,009 for certain questions. The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of adult Americans.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups, such as Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters and Republicans and Republican-leaning voters in the primaries. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error. Turnout in primary elections and caucuses tends to be low, with polls at this stage not identifying likely primary/caucus voters.
The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:
32% Democrat
29% Republican
27% Independent
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The
full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.
Related Link
