March 13, 2007

Giuliani Widens Lead over McCain for Republican Nomination
Obama Closing the Gap on Clinton in Democratic Race
Most Oppose Libby Pardon; Mixed Verdict on Cheney Resignation

By Mark Schulman and Tara Regan

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has widened the gap further between John McCain for the Republican nomination among registered Republicans in the most recent Time Poll. Giuliani now has a 20 point lead over McCain, who started the Republican primary season as the frontrunner. Giuliani's lead over McCain (40% - 20%) among registered Republicans is a further increase from his 14 point lead over McCain in late February (38% - 24%).

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama among registered Democrats has further narrowed to 8 points, 34% - 26%, down from 12 points in late February and 19 points since January. John Edwards dropped 1 point from late February to 10%, and Al Gore, an undeclared candidate, is at 13%. The other Democratic candidates hardly register in the polls so far.

Trial Heats: Giuliani Slightly Edges Clinton, Dead Heat with Obama
In a trial-heat against Hillary Clinton, Giuliani has a 4 point lead over the New York Senator (47% - 43%), little changed from late February (47%-44%). Giuliani might now face a tighter race against Barack Obama, 44% Obama vs. 43% Giuliani, with Obama erasing the 5 point Giuliani lead from late February. However, the trial-heat numbers for both races are extremely tight when sampling error is taken into account.

• Giuliani leads Clinton among Independents (48% - 40%). However, in a Giuliani-Obama match-up, Obama leads Giuliani among Independents (48% - 38%).

The trial-heats are even tighter against McCain. Clinton and McCain are in a dead-heat, (44% Clinton - 43% McCain), while Obama edges out McCain, 44% - 41%.

Giuliani Heavily Favored among Republicans
Giuliani's lead among Republican candidates for the nomination spans geography, gender and race:

• Although the core of Giuliani's strength is in the Northeast, where he has a 2-to-1 margin over McCain, 51% - 25%, he also leads by double digits in every other region as well, including the Midwest (34% - 17%), South (40% - 19%) and West (40% - 20%).

• Giuliani leads McCain by a 2-to-1 margin among both men (42% - 21%), women (39% - 19%) and white Born Again (37% - 17%) registered Republican voters.

Among the remaining candidates, the only two to register much at this point are Mitt Romney, who remains at 7%, and Newt Gingrich at 10%.

Q6. If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today,
which candidate would you most likely vote for?
Base: Registered Republican/Lean Republican
	Total (%)	Northeast (%)	Mid-West (%)	South (%)	West (%)
Rudy Giuliani	40	51	34	40	40
John McCain	20	25	17	19	20
Newt Gingrich	10	6	12	12	9
Mitt Romney	7	7	6	6	10
Mike Huckabee	2	1	4	2	*
Sam Brownback	2	--	2	3	*
Chuck Hagel	1	--	3	1	2
Jim Gilmore	1	--	1	2	--
Tom Tancredo	*	--	--	--	1

When Republicans are pushed to choose McCain, Giuliani, Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich, the margin between Giuliani and McCain stays about the same at 19 points (43% Giuliani vs. 24% McCain vs. 13% Gingrich and 9% Romney).

Q7. If your choices for the Republican nomination were just McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Gingrich which would you vote for?
Base: Republican/Lean Republican
	Total (%)
Rudy Giuliani	43
John McCain	24
Newt Gingrich	13
Mitt Romney	9

Clinton's Lead Shrinking on Democratic Side
Hillary Clinton's lead over Barack Obama among registered Democrats has further narrowed to 8 points, 34% - 26%, down from a 12-point lead in late February and 19-point lead in January.

• Clinton's lead is mainly in the Northeast (40% Clinton - 20% Obama) with smaller margins over Obama in the Midwest (34% - 25%) and South (33% - 28%). Obama and Clinton are virtually tied in the West (31% Obama - 30% Clinton).

• Clinton leads among women (38% - 24%), while Obama has a 2 point edge among men registered Democratic voters (29% Obama - 27% Clinton).

• Black voters continue to be split evenly between Clinton and Obama (40% - 40%).

John Edwards is currently at 10%, a one point drop from 11% in both January and February. Al Gore, an undeclared candidate, is steady at 13%, the same as two weeks ago.

When asked who Democrats would choose for the nomination if it was among just Clinton, Obama and Edwards, the margin between Clinton and Obama increases to 11 points (42% Clinton vs. 31% Obama vs. 17% Edwards).

Q8. If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today,
which candidate would you be most likely to vote for?
Base: Registered Democrat/Lean Democrat
	Total (%)	Northeast (%)	Mid-West (%)	South (%)	West (%)	Male (%)	Female (%)
Hillary Rodham Clinton	34	40	34	33	30	27	38
Barack Obama	26	20	25	28	31	29	24
Al Gore	13	14	11	16	10	14	13
John Edwards	10	11	12	8	9	13	8
Bill Richardson	2	1	1	1	7	5	1
Joe Biden	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Dennis Kucinich	2	2	2	*	3	2	2
Al Sharpton	1	1	1	*	--	1	*
Chris Dodd	*	--	1	--	--	*	--

Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich Best-Known Republicans; Remaining Candidates-a Ways to Go
Among Republican registered voters, more than 4-in-5 say that they know either "a great deal" or "some" about Rudy Giuliani (88%) and John McCain (81%). About 7-in-10 say they know "a great deal" or "some" about Newt Gingrich (71%).

• The remaining 4 Republican contenders suffer from very low awareness among Republican registered voters. More than 3-in-5 say that either "don't know much" or "have never heard of" Mitt Romney (65%), Chuck Hagel (86%), Sam Brownback (87%) and Mike Huckabee (89%).

Q10E. How much do you know about the following candidates?
Base: Republican Registered Voters/Total Asked
	Know a great deal/Some? (%)	Know not much/just know name (%)	Never heard of? (%)	Change in Know a great deal/some since Jan. (%)
Rudy Giuliani	88	9	2	+6
John McCain	81	15	3	+2
Newt Gingrich	71	21	7	+3
Mitt Romney	33	33	32	+13
Chuck Hagel	14	37	49	+5
Sam Brownback	12	36	51	NA
Mike Huckabee	10	38	51	+2

Republican Candidate Favorability: Giuliani Scores Highest
Rudy Giuliani enjoys the highest favorability ratings among Republican presidential candidates with 85% of Republican registered voters having a "very" or "somewhat" favorable impression of him, and 9% giving him an unfavorable rating. Overall his net favorability - favorables minus unfavorables - is +76 among registered Republicans.

• Among other Republican candidates, John McCain is second with a +62 net favorable score (77% of registered Republicans have a "favorable" impression of him minus 15% with an unfavorable impression), followed by Newt Gingrich (+37), Mitt Romney (+29), Chuck Hagel (+12), Mike Huckabee (+12) and Sam Brownback (+10).

• It remains to be seen among Republican candidates with low awareness, whether greater exposure and knowledge among voters will boost their favorability ratings or not.

Most Say Bush Should Not Pardon Libby; Mixed on Cheney Resignation
About 7-in-10 (72%) Americans think that President Bush should not give Louis "Scooter" Libby a presidential pardon for his recent conviction of lying to a grand jury and FBI agents investigating the leak of the name of a secret CIA operative.

• Less than 1-in-5 (18%) think that President Bush should pardon Libby.

Americans are split however, on whether President Bush should ask Vice President Cheney to resign over the Libby conviction and other matters. About half (48%), say that Bush should not ask Cheney to resign. Slightly less (40%) think that President Bush should ask VP Cheney to resign.

• Republicans are much more likely to say that Cheney should not be asked to resign than Democrats (73% Republicans vs. 33% Democrats).

U.S. Plan for Iraq: Only 1 in 4 Say U.S. Should Stay As Long As Needed
There is no real consensus among Americans about the timing for U.S. troop withdrawal in Iraq:

• About 2-in-5 (41%) think that the U.S. should set a deadline for withdrawing troops if the Iraqi government doesn't show definite progress in training Iraqi forces and bringing stability to Iraq,

• About 3-in-10 (31%) think that the U.S. should withdraw all troops from Iraq in the next 12 months regardless of what happens in Iraq,

About one-quarter (24%) think the U.S. should keep troops in Iraq for as long as needed until the Iraqi people can handle the situation themselves.

Republicans are more likely to favor keeping U.S. troops in Iraq as long as necessary (47% Republicans vs. 9% Democrats), while Democrats are more likely to favor withdrawing all U.S. troops in the next 12 months regardless of what happens in Iraq (47% Democrats vs. 13% Republicans).

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between March 9-12, 2007 among a national random sample of 1,918 adults, resulting in 1500 registered voters, age 18 and older throughout America. Not all questions were asked of all respondents. The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of adult Americans.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups, for example, the margin of error for Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters and Republicans and Republican-leaning voters in the primaries is approximately +/- 4 percentage points. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error. Turnout in primary elections and caucuses tends to be low, with polls at this stage not identifying likely primary/caucus voters.

The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:

     35% Democrat
     29% Republican
     27% Independent

Registered Republicans include those who self-identify as Republicans or say they lean Republican. Registered Democrats include those who self-identify as Democrats or say they lean Democratic.

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.

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Related Link

• Time Magazine/SRBI Survey Questionnaire and Frequencies