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March 27, 2007
Edwards Surge Tightens Democratic Race
Giuliani Lead Narrowing for Republican Nomination
By Mark Schulman and Tara Regan
Although Hillary Clinton continues to lead the pack for the Democratic nomination, she faces increasing pressure not only from Barack Obama but now also from John Edwards, whose support has grown following disclosure of his wife's cancer recurrence, according to the latest Time Poll.
Clinton's lead over Obama among registered Democrats has stabilized at 7 points, 31% - 24%, little changed from mid-March, but down from 19 points in January. John Edwards' support has increased by 6 points to 16% since mid-March. Al Gore, an undeclared candidate, is at 15%, up 6 points since mid-January, according to the latest Time Poll.
Edwards Surge Tightens Democratic Race
When registered Democrats were asked to choose among just Clinton, Obama and Edwards, the race shows further signs of tightening. Clinton has an 8 point lead over Obama, with Edwards now just 4 points down to Obama (38% Clinton vs. 30% Obama vs. 26% Edwards). Edwards was just at 17% in mid-March.
Giuliani Lead Narrowing Among Republicans
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani's lead over John McCain for the Republican nomination has narrowed to 13 points, 35%-22%, among registered Republicans, down from a 20 point lead 2 weeks ago. Mitt Romney has increased by 4 points in the last 2 weeks to 11%. Newt Gingrich has increased by an insignificant 2 points in the same period to 12%.
Trial Heats: Giuliani and McCain Edge Clinton, Dead Heat with Obama
In a trial-heat against Clinton, Giuliani has widened his lead over the New York Senator to 9 points (50% - 41%) an increase of 5 points since mid-March. Giuliani still faces a tight race against Barack Obama, 45% Giuliani vs. 44% Obama, little changed from 2 weeks ago (44% Obama vs. 43% Giuliani).
- Giuliani leads Clinton among Independents (56% - 33%). However, in a Giuliani-Obama match-up, Obama leads Giuliani among Independents (46% - 42%).
McCain now has a 6 point lead over Clinton (48% - 42%) in a head-to-head match up, erasing a one-point Clinton lead from 2 weeks ago. McCain now slightly edges out Obama (45% - 43%) flipping a 3 point Obama lead from mid March.
In a trial-heat against Mitt Romney, Clinton has a 17 point lead over the former Governor of Massachusetts (51% - 34%). Barack Obama has an even greater margin over Romney with a 24 point lead (53% - 29%).
Clinton Strength in Northeast and Among Women
Clinton's strength is mainly in the Northeast (40% Clinton - 20% Obama - 11% Edwards) with smaller margins over Obama in the South (33% Clinton - 27% Obama - 16% Edwards). It is a dead-heat among the 3 candidates now in the Midwest (25% Clinton - 23% Obama - 24% Edwards) and between Clinton and Obama in the West (26% Clinton - 26% Obama).
- Clinton leads among women (35% Clinton - 25% Obama - 17% Edwards), while Clinton and Obama are virtually tied among men (24% Clinton - 23% Obama).
- Clinton is about even with Obama among Black voters (41% - 37%).
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Q14. If the Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, |
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which candidate would you be most likely to vote for? |
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Base: Registered Democrat/Lean Democrat, Sampling Error +/- 7 points |
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Total (%) |
Northeast (%) |
Mid-West (%) |
South (%) |
West (%) |
Male (%) |
Female (%) |
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Hillary Rodham Clinton |
31 |
40 |
25 |
33 |
26 |
24 |
35 |
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Barack Obama |
24 |
20 |
23 |
27 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
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John Edwards |
16 |
11 |
24 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
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Al Gore |
15 |
17 |
8 |
12 |
23 |
21 |
11 |
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Bill Richardson |
3 |
-- |
4 |
3 |
4 |
6 |
1 |
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Joe Biden |
2 |
4 |
2 |
1 |
* |
3 |
1 |
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Chris Dodd |
1 |
1 |
2 |
* |
-- |
* |
1 |
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Dennis Kucinich |
* |
-- |
2 |
* |
-- |
1 |
* |
Giuliani Lead Vulnerable among Republicans
Although Giuliani has a 13 point lead over John McCain, his closest competitor for the Republican nomination, his lead is beginning to show some vulnerability:
- Giuliani's 20 point lead over McCain among white Born Again Christian registered voters has diminished to 2 points (27% Giuliani vs. 25% McCain).
- Among the remaining candidates, the only two to register much at this point are Mitt Romney, who has improved by 4 points to 11%, and Newt Gingrich who has improved by 2 points to 12%.
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Q12. If the Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, |
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which candidate would you most likely vote for? |
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Base: Registered Republican/Lean Republican, Sampling Error +/- 7 points |
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Total (%) |
Northeast (%) |
Mid-West (%) |
South (%) |
West (%) |
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Rudy Giuliani |
35 |
45 |
38 |
35 |
23 |
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John McCain |
22 |
24 |
13 |
26 |
24 |
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Newt Gingrich |
12 |
6 |
9 |
12 |
22 |
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Mitt Romney |
11 |
16 |
10 |
7 |
16 |
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Sam Brownback |
2 |
2 |
6 |
-- |
2 |
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Mike Huckabee |
1 |
1 |
-- |
1 |
-- |
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Jim Gilmore |
1 |
1 |
-- |
2 |
-- |
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Tom Tancredo |
* |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
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When Republicans are pushed to choose McCain, Giuliani, Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich, the margin between Giuliani and McCain is now 7 points down from 19 points just 2 weeks ago (35% Giuliani vs. 28% McCain vs. 14% Gingrich and 12% Romney).
Romney Suffers From Low Awareness
Romney still suffers from low awareness among registered voters. More than one-quarter (28%) say they have never heard of him. An additional 37% say they either "do not know much" or "just know his name."
- Although almost 2-in-3 (63%) registered voters say it makes "no difference" if a candidate is a Mormon, about 3-in-10 (31%) say it would make them "less likely" to support a candidate. Mitt Romney is a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints, or Mormons.
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Q13. If your choices for the Republican nomination were just McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Gingrich which would you vote for? |
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Base: Republican/Lean Republican |
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Total (%) |
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Rudy Giuliani |
35 |
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John McCain |
28 |
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Newt Gingrich |
14 |
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Mitt Romney |
12 |
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Which Candidate Would You Trust Most to Babysit Your Children? Hillary
Hillary Clinton is the presidential candidate that most voters say:
- they would trust the most to baby sit their children or children they know (21% Clinton, with Edwards coming in second at 12% and McCain in third at 9%);
- would make the best high school principal (20% say Clinton with Giuliani coming in second at 16% and Obama in third at 14%);
- would be the best contestant on Dancing with the Stars (19%) with Obama close at her heels at 18%. John Edwards comes in third at 9%.
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between March 23-26, 2007 among a national random sample of 1,264 adults, resulting in 1,102 registered voters, age 18 and older throughout America. The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of adult Americans.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups, for example, the margin of error for Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters and Republicans and Republican-leaning voters in the primaries is approximately +/- 4 percentage points. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error. Turnout in primary elections and caucuses tends to be low, with polls at this stage not identifying likely primary/caucus voters.
The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:
34% Democrat
27% Republican
28% Independent
Registered Republicans include those who self-identify as Republicans or say they lean Republican. Registered Democrats include those who self-identify as Democrats or say they lean Democratic.
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.
Related Link
