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September 3, 2004
Presidential choice question based on likely voters. All other results, unless noted, based on registered voters. Telephone Interviewing was conducted August 31 - September 2, 2004.
Bush Opens Lead: Bounce or Momentum?
By Mark Schulman
After months of deadlock and even slight Kerry advantage, George W. Bush has now opened up an 11 point lead over John Kerry among likely voters in the Presidential race, 52% - 41%, with Nader at 3% in the three-way race.
Just last week, Bush had pulled even with Kerry, 46% Bush - 44% Kerry, after Kerry enjoyed a narrow advantage over Bush in the post-Democratic Convention Time Poll in early August.
This week's Time Poll was taken August 31 - September 2, amidst fierce attacks on Kerry at the Republican convention. Only future polls will determine whether this is a short-term Bush bounce or whether Bush has gained momentum in the past few weeks as Kerry has stumbled.
Likely Voters |
Likely Voters |
Likely Voters |
|
| Bush | |||
| Kerry | |||
| Nader | |||
| Don't know | |||
Kerry Slippage
The poll finds that incumbent George Bush's performance measures have ticked up a bit in recent weeks, while Kerry's ratings have slipped, even on what was once Kerry's key advantage, handling the economy. The candidates are now tied, 47% Bush - 45% Kerry, on who best will handle the economy. Kerry led by 9 points, 51% - 42%, in early August on handling the economy.
Blistering attacks on both Kerry's Vietnam service record and his voting record on defense spending appear to have strengthened Bush's edge over Kerry on leading the war on terrorism and on being commander-in-chief.
- On handling the war on terrorism, Bush now leads Kerry 57% - 36%, significantly wider than Bush's 49% - 41% lead in early August.
- On being commander-in-chief, voters now give Bush a solid 54% - 39% lead over Kerry, compared to a tie, 47% Kerry - 45% Bush in early August.
Voters continue to trust Bush more than Kerry on handling the situation in Iraq, 53% - 41%, little changed over the past month.
Kerry continues to lead Bush only on health care, 48% Kerry - 42%. However, Kerry's lead has narrowed significantly over the past month. For example, in early August, Kerry led Bush by a wide 54% - 36% on handling health care.
Kerry's favorability scores have also slipped since early August. Voters now give Kerry a 43% favorable - 36% unfavorable rating. That's down substantially from Kerry's early August 53% - 29%. About 1 in 5 voters (19%) remain undecided about Kerry, just slightly lower (24% undecided in late July) than before the Democratic Convention reintroduced Kerry to voters.
Bush's Upticks
As Kerry has slipped, Bush's ratings have edged up on a few key indicators. His overall approval rating as President is now at 55% approve - 42% disapprove, up from 50% approve - 46% disapprove in early August. Bush' approval rating had been hovering around or just below 50% for some time, a danger zone for incumbents seeking re-election.
Bush scored gains In specific performance areas:
- On handling the economy, Bush now stands at 48% approve - 48 disapprove, a gain over early August's 43% approve - 54% disapprove. Friday's monthly unemployment report might shift this number.
- On handling Iraq, Bush has edged up, from a seven point deficit, 45% favorable - 52% unfavorable in early August, to a 50 favorable - 46% unfavorable now. A slim majority of voters, 52% now believe that the decision to go to war with Iraq was "right," up from 47% in early August.
- On handling the war on terrorism, Bush's approval rating is at 59% approve - 38% disapprove, up slightly from 56% - 41% in early August.
Voters are evenly divided on whether Bush deserves re-election, 49% yes, 48% no. In early August only 42% said he deserved to be re-elected.
One key indicator that continues to vex Bush' re-election chances is that a majority of voters, 50% - 45%, see the country on the "wrong track," unchanged since early August.
Issue Agenda
While the economy continues to be voters' top concern (25%) in deciding on their vote, the war on terrorism has increased in importance, at 24%, up 6 percentage points since early August. This also favors Bush, who has positioned himself as the "war President."
Bush would be advantaged if voter concerns tilt away from the economy, Kerry's biggest strength vis-à-vis Bush.
(Base: Registered Voters) |
|||
| Economy | |||
| War on Terrorism | |||
| Situation in Iraq | |||
| Moral Values Issues | |||
| Health care | |||
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone August 31- September 2, 2004 among a random sample of 1,316 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1,128 reported registered voters and 926 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related links below.
Related Links
