Race Remains Deadlocked After Debates

October 16, 2004

Presidential choice question based on likely voters. All other results, unless noted, based on registered voters. Telephone interviewing was conducted October 14-15, 2004.

Race Remains Deadlocked After Debates

By Mark A. Schulman

The race for the White House remains deadlocked, 48% Bush - 46% Kerry, among likely voters. Challenger Kerry's lopsided victory in the first Presidential debate pulled him even with Bush after trailing in September. However, Bush stanched his losses after the first debate to keep the race even with two weeks remaining.

Just before the first debate, Bush was up by 5 points. The debates did allow Kerry to reintroduce himself and burnish his image, which had suffered during September. Kerry's overall debate victory only evened the race.

Vote for President? (Likely Voters)
	Oct. 14-15	Sept 21-23	Sept 7-9
Bush	48%	48%	53%
Kerry	46%	43%	41%
Nader	3%	5%	3%
Don't know	3%	3%	3%

Kerry Decisive Debate Victor
Overall, with the debates now over, registered voters gave Kerry the overall debate win by a lopsided 57% - 27% over Bush. After stumbling badly in the first debate, Bush did rebound a bit in the later two rounds to stop the erosion and keep the race deadlocked. He lost the first debate by 36 points, 59% - 23%. He lost the final debate by a narrower 9 point margin, 37% - 28%.

Almost 1 in 3 voters, 30%, said the debates made them more likely to vote for Kerry, compared to only 17% more likely to vote for Bush.

Underpinning Kerry's strong showing in the debates were victories over Bush in each of the following:

Took positions on issues closer to your own: Kerry 54% - Bush 39%.

Understands the issues: Kerry 49% - Bush 40%.

Seemed more presidential: Kerry 49% - Bush 44%.

Being more believable: Kerry 48% - Bush 44%.

The candidates tied on which was more likeable: Kerry 47% - Bush 45%.

Debate Evaluation: Which candidate... (Registered Voters)
	Oct.14-15		Oct. 6-7
	Bush	Kerry	Bush	Kerry
Had the best understanding of issues	40%	49%	43%	43%
Was more likeable	45%	47%	41%	49%
Was more believable	44%	48%	42%	47%
Seemed more Presidential	44%	49%	46%	45%
Took positions on issues that are closer to your own	39%	54%	42%	48%

Who won the Debates Overall? (Registered Voters)
	Total	Republican	Democrat
John Kerry	57%	23%	85%
George Bush	27%	57%	7%

Bush Approval Rating Slides
After the damaging first debate, Bush's job approval has continued to slip. Voters now give Bush a negative approval rating, 49% approve - 49% disapprove. That's down even from last week's 50% approval - 46% disapprove. This marks the second week in a row that Bush has dipped under 50% approval rating in the Time Poll.

Kerry Favorables Slightly Higher than Bush
Kerry's favorables are now + 11 points, 48% favorable - 37% unfavorable. That's much improved since just before the debates, when he was at 42% favorable, 36% unfavorable. However, they fell slightly from last week, when he had a +16 point difference. Bush's favorables are now +9 points, at 49%-40%, slightly recovered from last week's +6 point difference.

Kerry Burnishes Image, but Still Trails on Terrorism
Kerry has widened his lead over Bush since mid-September on handling domestic issues. Bush still leads, but more narrowly, on terrorism and war issues.

Here are some head-to-heads:

Handling of the economy: Kerry has opened a 6 point lead over Bush, 49% - 43%. Just before the first debate, the candidates were even, 44% for each.

Health care: Kerry has widened his lead to 13 points, 51%-38%. Before the debates, Kerry had an 8 point edge.

Understanding people's needs: Kerry is up by 7 points, 49% - 42%. Before the debates, he was up by just 4 points.

Bush still dominates in the following areas, but his lead has narrowed a bit in each:

Commander-in-Chief: Bush is ahead by 10 points, 51%-41%, but this has narrowed from a 16 point advantage before the debates.

Providing leadership in difficult times: Bush leads by 8 points, 52%-40%. Before the debates, he dominated by as much as 21 points.

War on terrorism: Bush tops Kerry 51%-40%, after leading Kerry by as much as 18 points before the debates.

Economy Top Issue
More than 1 in 4 registered voters, 26%, mention the economy, Kerry's strong suit as the most important issue in their candidate choice. Trailing just behind is terrorism , which has slipped a bit from as high as 23% during the Republican convention to 22% now. Iraq has been steady at 20%, about the same since July. Moral values has dropped from as high as 18% to 12% now.

Issues Split Voters Along Partisan Lines
The Time Poll finds voters split along partisan lines on several major domestic issues.

Gun control: almost half of voters, 49%, favor stricter laws on gun control. Only 8% favor less strict laws, while 38% say that current gun control laws are about right. A lopsided 73% favor reinstating the ban on assault weapons that expired recently without being reauthorized.

Almost 2 in 3 Kerry supporters (64%) favor stricter gun control, compared to only 34% of Bush backers.

Embryonic stem cell research: voters overwhelmingly favor, by 69%-22%, using discarded embryos for stem cell research. They are more divided on whether federal funds should be used to develop more embryonic stem cell lines Half of voters, 50%, favor federal funding to develop new lines, while 32% favor Bush's plan of limiting funding only to stem cell lines already developed. Only 13% oppose federal funds for any type of embryonic stem cell research.

Most Kerry supporters, 70%, favor allowing federal funds to develop new stem cell lines. Only 32% of Bush backers support federal funding for new lines.

Abortion: voters divide almost evenly on whether a woman should be able to get an abortion for any reason during the first three months of pregnancy (44%), or whether abortion should be permitted only for limited reasons, such as rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother (45%). Only 9% oppose abortion under any circumstances.

Almost 6 in 10 Kerry backers (59%) favor abortion for any reason during the first three months of pregnancy, compared to only 28% of Bush supporters.

Same-sex marriage: 58% of voters oppose gay marriage, while only 35% would allow it. However, 54% of voters also oppose a federal constitutional amendment banning same-sex couples from marrying, with only 41% supporting an amendment.

Only 24% of Kerry backers favor a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, compared to 60% of Bush supporters.

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone October 14-15, 2004 among a random sample of 1131 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1000 reported registered voters and 865 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.

Likely voters reported party identifications are: 36% Democrat, 35% Republican, 21% Independents.

Registered voters party affiliations are: 37% Democrat, 32% Republican, 23% Independent.

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found may be found in the related links below.

Related Links