Bush Takes Lead

October 22, 2004

Presidential choice question based on likely voters. All other results, unless noted, based on registered voters. Telephone interviewing was conducted October 19-21, 2004.

Bush Takes Lead

By Mark A. Schulman

With the candidates back on the stump in the final post-debate sprint, George Bush has opened a 5 point lead among likely voters, 51% - 46% among likely voters, with Nader at 2%. Bush appears to have retaken some ground lost in the debates to return to his pre-debate standing, when he was also up by 5 points.

Just last week, in the days following the final debate, Kerry had pulled about even with Bush after Kerry's lopsided win in the first debate and narrower losses in the next two meetings.

Among all registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 50%-43%.

Bush's internal numbers have also returned to more positive pre-debate levels, outscoring Kerry by wide margins on combating terrorism and being commander-in-chief. Kerry's edge over Bush on domestic issues has narrowed in the past, post-debates week.

Bush Approval Rating
Bush has again broken past 50% job approval rating, at 53% approve - 44% disapprove. Just after the debates last week, Bush's negatives were even with his positives, 49% approve - 49% disapprove.

Kerry Favorables Down Again
Bush's favorable ratings have stabilized at +9 points, 51%-42%, same as last week. Kerry's favorables are down to +3, at 45% favorable - 42% unfavorable. Following the debates, Kerry's favorables were up by + 11 points.

Iraq continues to weigh Bush down. Half, 50% disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq following the American invasion. However, voters still trust Bush over Kerry in handling the situation in Iraq, 51% - 41%.

Kerry Slips on Domestic Issues, Bush opens wider lead on Terrorism
Kerry's lead on handling domestic issues has narrowed since last week. Bush still leads, but more narrowly, on terrorism and war issues.

Here are some head-to-heads:

Handling of the economy: Bush now has an insignificant 1 point lead over Kerry, 46%-45%, after being down 6 points last week in what had been a Kerry stronghold in August. Just before the first debate, the candidates were even, 44% for each.

Health care: Kerry's lead has narrowed to 4 points, as compared to 8 points before the debates. Just last week, Kerry had a 13 point margin over Bush, 51%-38%.

Understanding people's needs: Kerry is up by just 2 points, 46%-44%, again about the same as before the debates. Last week, Kerry was up by 7 points, 49% - 42%.

Bush's dominance in the following areas has grown in the past week:

Commander-in-Chief: Bush is ahead by 12 points, 52%-40%, up from 10 points last week.

Providing leadership in difficult times: Bush leads by 16 points, 54%-38%, up from 12 points last week.

War on terrorism: Bush tops Kerry by 19 points, 56% - 37%, up from just 11 points last week. Bush had been up by as many as 18 points before the debates.

Preventing spread of weapons of mass destruction: Bush is up by 16 points, 53% -37%.

Terrorism Up as a Top Issue
Terrorism has now tied with the economy as the most important issue in the election, further strengthening Bush's support. About 1 in 4 registered voters, 24%, mention terrorism, up from 22% last week. The economy " Kerry's strong suit " also at 24%, is about the same as last week. Other issues include Iraq, 18%, and moral values at 14%, both about the same as last week.

Swing Vote: Question of Turnout
Swing voters -- that is, the 11% of voters who are undecided or not firmly committed to either candidate - lean slightly to Kerry (33%) over Bush (22%), with 32% completely unsure. In a close race, these voters swing the election outcome if they turnout.

What can we say about swing voters? The biggest question is how many will turnout at the polls. They're not as involved and committed to voting as others. Only 41% say that the election outcome will make a big difference, compared to 75% of likely voters. These swing voters also:

lean a bit toward the Democrats (43%) than Republican (29%).

are somewhat lower income, with mean annual household incomes of $46,000, compared to $56,000 for all registered voters.

are concerned about the economy (29%) and Iraq (24%) -- closer to Kerry supporters than Bush supporters. Only 12% say terrorism is their main concern, compared to 38% of Bush backers.

Gender Vote
Kerry has again lost his edge among women voters. Women are evenly split 46% Bush-46% Kerry. Two weeks ago women were split 50% Kerry -42% Bush.

Bush leads among men 54% Bush-39% Kerry.

High Election Intensity
The backdrop for this election is a divided electorate. Overall, 47% of voters say that the nation has become more divided in the past four years.

Almost 2 in 3 (65%) Kerry supporters see the nation more divided.

Only 1 in 3 (33%) of Bush supporters see more division.

Clearly the stakes for voters are high in 2004: 7 in 10 voters (70%) say that the election of the candidate they oppose will have a "major negative impact on the country." Sentiment is even more intense among those most likely to vote, with 79% of likely voters believing the election of the other candidate will have a major negative impact.

Three in four of both Bush (73%) and Kerry (75%) supporters predict a major negative effect if the other candidate takes office.

Voters judging the nation as "more divided" spread the blame. While 47% cite Bush as a major reason for the discord, the media gets the major blame, at 57%. Other guilty parties include:

hotly contested 2000 Presidential election, 42%.

Republican party, 35%.

Democratic party, 28%.

U.S. Congress, 27%.

Supreme Court, 21%.

Voters split evenly between Bush (43%) and Kerry (42%) on who will be most likely to unite the country. Voters split predictably along partisan lines. More than 8 in 10 Bush (82%) and Kerry (88%) supporters believe their candidate is more likely to unite.

Early Voting: 7% Voted Already
One indicator of the intensity of the election is that 7% of registered voters report that they have already voted under early voting programs/absentee ballots.

Many See Campaign Negative
More than 1 in 3 voters (36%) believe that the 2004 campaign has been more negative than usual. Only 8% view the campaign as more positive than in the past. About half of voters (52%) believe that the 2004 campaign has been about the same as always.

Almost half of voters say Kerry's campaign has been mostly negative, with only 40% viewing Kerry's campaign as positive.

Slightly fewer voters (41%) view Bush's campaign as negative, with 47% deeming his campaign was positive.

Americans Fear Another Vote Count Debacle
In spite of efforts thoughout the country to improve the vote count, many voters are concerned that the nation may see a repeat of the problems that plagued the 2000 elections. Only 13% believe the country has made "a great deal of progress" in correcting the problems experienced four years ago.

Almost 1 in 3 voters (29%) worry that their own ballots will not be counted accurately.

60% worry about the vote count being manipulated by election officials.

58% worry that the courts may again determine who's elected president this year.

Almost half (48%) worry that voter fraud and ballot counting problems might result in a President taking office who is not the legitimate winner.

If the election does wind up in the courts, 54% do trust the courts to determine the real winner.

Most voters would like to see the winner declared by popular vote, not the Electoral College. A majority, 56%-37%, would amend the Constitution and eliminate the Electoral College.

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone October19-21, 2004 among a random sample of 1,200 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1,059 reported registered voters and 803 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.

Likely voters reported party identifications are: 35% Democrat, 35% Republican, 23% Independents.

Registered voters party affiliations are: 35% Democrat, 33% Republican, 23% Independent.

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related links below.

Related Links