Bush Economy: A Mixed Picture

September 3, 2004

Results based on sample of American adults unless otherwise noted. Telephone Interviewing was conducted September 1 - September 2, 2004

Bush Economy: A Mixed Picture

By Mark Schulman

Even as George W. Bush opened a sizeable lead over John Kerry, 52% - 41% among likely voters, Bush still remains vulnerable to pocketbook issues. The bumpy recovery and uncertain job prospects still worry Americans. However, many Americans also see encouraging signs of recovery as well, according to this week's Time Poll.

Economic issues, (26%) tie with the war on terrorism (23%) as the main issues driving the vote among Americans.

Even as the economic recovery proceeds and the unemployment rate drops, more than 6 of 10 Americans (62%), voters and non-voters, rate current economic conditions negatively, as "only fair" or "poor." Only 37% are positive (excellent or good) on the economy. These numbers are a reversal from 2000, just before Bush took charge, in August 2000, when almost three in four Americans (74%) rated economic conditions positively.

Likely troubling to George W. Bush is that his father lost his re-election bid in 1992 to Clinton, who focused his campaign on, "it's the economy, stupid." But the elder Bush faced a far harsher economic opinion climate than today, with only 10% positive on the economy, according to an August 1992 Gallup poll.

However, election year economics forces do not always foretell election outcomes. Bill Clinton faced overly negative economics ratings for the country during the 1996 election season, when a majority of 52% gave the economy negative ratings. Al Gore seemingly had the advantage in 2000 of a 74% positive view of the economy before ultimately losing the election to George W. Bush.

Bush's Economic Track Record
One litmus test of Bush's track record is whether Americans feel they're better off or worse off since he took office. Less than 1 in 3 (31%) say that they're better off today than four years ago, while an almost equal number (27%) say that they're worse off. The rest (41%) say that they're about as well off as four years ago.

Even as the unemployment rate has lowered, job-related anxieties are still high:

Almost 1 in 5 working Americans (18%) are worried about losing their jobs.

Over half of Americans (52%) know someone who's been laid off in the past six months.

A large majority of Americans (63%) fear that they would have to take a lower paying job if they lost their current jobs today. The stereotype of having to "flip burgers" if you lose your current job is rampant.

Economic Worries
Large majorities of Americans have many specific economic worries:

75% worry about the increase in the national debt.

83% worry about higher prices at the gas pump.

64% worry about higher interest rates on borrowing money.

76% worry about a negative US trade balance.

74% worry about inflation.

80% worry about the departure of manufacturing jobs overseas.

73% worry about having enough affordable energy to keep the country running.

77% worry about companies sending jobs to countries where people get paid less than here.

Health care remains a concern for many Americans, especially because these benefits may or may not be tied into their jobs.

Nearly 1 out of every 3 Employed Americans (32%) don't receive health care from their employer, of which 27% once had medical benefits from their employer.

47% worry about affording the healthcare they & their families need.

Retirement worries loom as well:

52% are doing a poor to only fair job at saving for their retirement.

47% have not been able to save and invest enough money for retirement and other needs over the last 12 months.

Americans are divided on Bush's proposal to allow them to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes into stocks. About 4 in 10 (41%) favor an investment option, while an even larger 50% reject the investment option as too risky.

Impact of Bush Tax Cuts
Bush continues to divide voters over his tax cuts, which were at the heart of the first-term Bush agenda:

57% of Americans do not feel they have personally benefited from Bush's tax cuts.

23% feel Bush's tax cuts have hurt the economy, while 36% feel they have not had much impact. Only 34% feel they have helped the economy.

And, given a choice between tax cuts and various alternatives:

52% of Americans would rather balance the budget rather than cut taxes, while a lesser 40% prefer the tax cuts.

70% would rather spend more money in areas such as education and health care rather than cut taxes, while only 24% prefer the tax cuts.

60% would rather spend more money in areas such as defense and the war on terrorism rather than cut taxes, while 32%% prefer the tax cuts.

Is Worst Behind?
The good news for Bush is that many Americans feel that the economy has turned the corner and is set to improve. Fully 44% expect economic conditions to be better one year from now, with 36% expecting conditions to remain about the same. Only 9% expect worse economic conditions.

The so-called middle class crunch continues to cause concern for large numbers of Americans with 42% feeling that they can't keep up with the cost of living - a central theme of Kerry's campaign.

Regional Differences
Economic sentiments vary by region. Southerners, in the heart of Bush's 'Blue State" belt, are more positive about the current economy than people in other parts of the country.

44% of Southerners are positive about current economic conditions, compared to only 30% in the Northeast and Midwest, and 36% in the West.

43% of Southerners say this would be a "good" time to be looking for a job, compared to only 28% in the Northeast and Midwest, and 34% in the West.

While the Midwest has suffered high job losses, half of Midwesterners are optimistic (48%) that they economy will be better a year from now, about the same as in the South (46%). A lesser 39% of Northeasterners and 42% of Westerners are optimistic about the coming year.

Economics and Politics
Bush and Kerry supporters have broadly differing views of the current economic situation. 89% of Kerry supporters have negative views of current economic conditions compared to only 35% of Bush supporters.

Kerry supporters display a more guarded optimism of future economic conditions when compared with the more positive Bush supporters.

29% of Kerry supporters think economic conditions will improve over the next year, 43% that they will stay about the same, and 11% think they will worsen.

63% of Bush supporters think that economic conditions will improve over the next year, 28% that they will stay about the same, and only 5% think they will worsen.

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone September 1- September 21, 2004 among a random sample of 813 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 713 reported registered voters. The margin of error for the cross-section sample and for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points. Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related links below.

Related Links